宝城期货煤焦早报（2026年2月24日）-20260224

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is strong, and the reference view is oscillation. The coking coal price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern due to limited fundamental support and a long - term expectation of loose supply and demand [1][5]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is slightly stronger, and the reference view is oscillation. The coke price is expected to run at a low level with stable supply and demand in the short term and limited cost support from coking coal [1][6]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Price Trend: Short - term supply contracts during the Spring Festival but will quickly recover after the festival. In the long - run, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to loose supply - demand expectations [5]. - Driving Factors: The main driving factors are the short - term supply contraction during the Spring Festival, the long - term loose supply - demand situation, and the low - level stabilization of thermal coal prices. There are also three potential positive risks: geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran, economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions, and potential "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry [5]. Coke (J) - Price Trend: The fundamentals have no obvious change, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The cost support from coking coal is limited, and the futures lack unilateral momentum [6]. - Driving Factors: The supply and demand are stable during the Spring Festival. Although the supply of coking coal contracts in the short term, the coking enterprises and steel mills have sufficient coal stocks, and the resumption of coal mine production after the festival limits the cost support for coke. The uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6].