对二甲苯：成本支撑，趋势仍偏强， PTA：成本支撑，趋势仍偏强，MEG：区间操作

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX and PTA: Bullish [1] - MEG: Neutral, with interval operation recommended [1] Core Viewpoints - PX: Supported by cost, expected to rise after the Spring Festival. Long PXN. The PX price in US dollars increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the domestic opening price is expected to make up for the increase after the festival. The PX-naphtha spread has rebounded, and the PX operating rate remains high. The polyester operating rate will gradually recover after the festival, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [7]. - PTA: Supported by cost, with a short - term bullish trend. The PX price in US dollars increased during the Spring Festival, and the domestic PTA opening price is expected to make up for the increase. From March, PTA will enter a de - stocking pattern. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread position. The downstream polyester price has been raised, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [8]. - MEG: In an interval shock market. Long PTA and short MEG. The overseas ethylene glycol price remained stable during the Spring Festival, and the domestic opening price on the first day after the festival is expected to remain stable. The supply - side operating rate is rising, and there will be significant inventory accumulation in February. The basis and monthly spread may be weak. The unilateral price has limited downside space but the upside space is not yet open, so interval operation is recommended [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX - Price and Market: On February 23, the Asian paraxylene price assessment declined, reflecting the weakness of the upstream market. The CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea indicators decreased by $1.33/ton. The front - month ICE Brent futures contract fell by 66 cents/barrel, while the Platts - assessed naphtha C+F Japan price rose by $2.50/ton. Two CFR Unv1/China transactions were reported. Market participants are waiting for pricing cues from Chinese counterparts [3]. - Spread and Export: The physical PX - naphtha spread narrowed to $3.83/ton. South Korea's preliminary export statistics for the first 20 days of February totaled 364,079 tons, with 339,066 tons shipped to the Chinese mainland [4]. - Outlook: Cost support is strong. After the Spring Festival, the PX price is expected to rise. The PX - naphtha spread has recovered to $315/ton. The PX operating rate remains high, and the Asian PX operating rate is around 84%. The PTA operating rate is around 75%, and attention should be paid to the restart time of Dushan Energy's maintenance. The polyester operating rate will gradually recover after the festival [7]. PTA - Device Changes: During the holiday, Ineos' 1.1 million - ton PTA device had a short - term shutdown and has now recovered, and Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton PTA device is restarting [6]. - Polyester Market: On the seventh day of the first lunar month, major polyester manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang began to sell products. Driven by the rise in oil prices during the Spring Festival, the prices of POY/FDY/DTY products mostly increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the discounts were reduced [6]. - Outlook: Cost - supported, with a short - term bullish trend. The PX price in US dollars increased during the Spring Festival, and the domestic PTA opening price is expected to make up for the increase. There will be inventory accumulation from January to February, and from March, PTA will enter a de - stocking pattern. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread position [8]. MEG - Price and Supply: The overseas ethylene glycol price remained stable during the Spring Festival at $441/ton, and the domestic opening price on the first day after the festival is expected to remain stable. The supply - side operating rate at home and abroad is rising. Saudi Yansab's 750,000 - ton ethylene glycol plant has completed short - term maintenance, and Kuwait's Equate's 615,000 - ton device has restarted. The domestic operating rate is around 77%, and the coal - based device operating rate has reached a high of 78.6%. Future attention should be paid to the rotational inspection of Yulin Chemical's devices [8]. - Inventory and Market: In February, ethylene glycol will still be in a significant inventory accumulation pattern, and the basis and monthly spread may be weak. The unilateral price has limited downside space but the upside space is not yet open, so interval operation is recommended [8].