格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260224

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The latest released US economic data is divided. The economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year fell short of expectations, while inflation exceeded expectations, intensifying policy uncertainty, and the market is worried that the US economy will fall into stagflation. The ambiguity of US trade policy weakens investors' confidence in US assets and intensifies the global market volatility risk. During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas gold and silver generally rose, and the domestic market is likely to open higher after the holiday, with silver expected to open sharply higher [1][2] - Gold and silver fluctuate sharply in the short term, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On February 23, COMEX gold futures rose 3.29% to $5,247.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 6.87% to $88.00 per ounce. On February 13, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,110.10 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 19,782 yuan per kilogram. During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas gold and silver rose significantly [1] Important Information - As of February 23, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 7.72 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 1,086.47 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 312.77 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 15,830.38 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4.0%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96.0%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by April is 17.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 0.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by June is 46.8% [1] - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled 6 - 3 that the Trump administration's policy of imposing large - scale tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was illegal. On the same day, Trump announced that he would impose a 10% import tariff on global goods for 150 days under Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974 to replace the tariff found illegal by the Supreme Court. On the 21st, Trump posted on social media that the "global import tariff" rate he announced the previous day would be raised from 10% to 15% [1] - The US Customs will stop collecting the tariff ruled illegal by the Supreme Court from February 24. The US Democrats will block any attempt to extend the tariff and strongly promote a mandatory refund plan. The European Parliament has suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement. The UK may be the biggest victim of Trump's new tariff [1] - The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, far lower than the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 4.4%, mainly dragged down by the government shutdown and cooling consumption; the full - year GDP growth in 2025 was 2.2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. The core PCE price index in December increased by 3.0% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.9%, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, indicating that inflationary pressure still exists [1] - The annualized total number of new home sales in the US in December was 745,000, the highest since February 2022, exceeding the expected 730,000; personal spending increased by 0.4% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February was 56.6, lower than the expected 57.3, and the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.4% [1][2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in February was 51.2, a 7 - month low, lower than the expected 52.6, and the previous value in January was 52.4; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 52.3, slightly lower than the expected 53.0, and the previous value in January was 52.7, indicating a slowdown in business activity growth [2] - Data released by S&P Global showed that the eurozone's composite PMI in February rose from 51.3 in January to 51.9, the manufacturing PMI jumped from 49.5 to 50.8, reaching a 44 - month high and standing above the 50 boom - bust line for the first time since August last year. The service PMI rose slightly to 51.8, with the previous value at 51.6. Among them, the German economy improved significantly, with the composite PMI rising to a four - month high of 53.1 and the manufacturing PMI reaching 50.7, entering the expansion range for the first time since June 2022 [2] - CCTV News reported that there are reports that US President Trump has told his advisers that he "tends to conduct a preliminary strike (against Iran) in the next few days" and then launch a larger - scale military strike in the next few months to force Iran to "submit" and reach an agreement as required by the US. A new round of negotiations between the US and Iran is scheduled to be held in Geneva, Switzerland on the 26th. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said in an interview with US media on the 22nd that it is possible to reach a "better agreement" than the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and he also emphasized Iran's right to peaceful use of nuclear energy [2] Market Logic - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's use of IEEPA to impose tariffs was illegal; on the 21st, the US president posted on his social platform that he would impose a 15% import tariff on global goods. The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, with the government shutdown dragging down GDP by about 1 percentage point, far lower than the expected 3.0%; the US core PCE price index in December increased by 3.0% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.9%, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, indicating that inflationary pressure still exists. Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation continue. The latest released US economic data is divided, with the economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year falling short of expectations and inflation exceeding expectations, intensifying policy uncertainty, and the market is worried that the US economy will fall into stagflation. At the same time, the ambiguity of US trade policy weakens investors' confidence in US assets and intensifies the global market volatility risk. During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas gold and silver generally rose, and the domestic market is likely to open higher after the holiday, with silver expected to open sharply higher [1][2] Trading Strategy - Gold and silver fluctuate sharply in the short term, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]