纯碱周报：供应压力不减，短期难言反转-20260224

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is titled "Soda Ash: Supply Pressure Remains High, Short - term Reversal Unlikely" and is from Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - The research analyst is Hou Fan, and the report date is February 24, 2026 [5][7] Group 2: Market Review - Before the Spring Festival, the price of the main soda ash futures contract ranged from 1,148 to 1,196 yuan/ton. As of February 13, 2026, the main contract dropped 40 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.36%, closing at 1,150 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Supply - As of February 12, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash output was 792,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons or 2.32%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 85.18%, up 1.93% month - on - month [6][9] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.588 million tons, a 0.61% increase. Light soda ash inventory was 831,600 tons (down 800 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 756,400 tons (up 10,400 tons) [7][14] Shipment - As of February 12, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 785,400 tons, a 6.50% increase. The overall shipment rate was 99.13%, up 3.89 percentage points [16] Profit - As of February 12, 2026, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was - 32.50 yuan/ton, a 12.07% decline. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 89.25 yuan/ton, a 0.51% decline [19][23] Group 4: Downstream Industry Float Glass Industry - As of February 12, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 148,000 tons, a 1.2% decrease from February 5. The weekly output was 1.0452 million tons, a 1% month - on - month and 4.18% year - on - year decrease [26] - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.352 million weight boxes, a 4.31% month - on - month increase and a 12.28% year - on - year decrease [31] Group 5: Price Analysis - Most soda ash and related product prices remained stable from February 5 to February 12, 2026, except for a 1.01% increase in 5500 - kcal thermal coal and a 5.37% decrease in synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu [37] Group 6: Comprehensive Analysis and Suggestions - Before the Spring Festival, the soda ash futures price continued to decline weakly. The core market logic is the intensified contradiction between high - level supply and a demand vacuum. During the Spring Festival, the macro - level changes may provide marginal support, but the supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and a short - term reversal is unlikely [38] - Operational suggestions: For single - side trading, wait and see or try short on rebounds; for arbitrage, there is no suggestion; for options, consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value [39]