铝周报：沪铝或以震荡偏强运行-20260224

Group 1: Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Aluminum prices are likely to show a mainly fluctuating and strengthening trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for options contracts [7][41] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Before the Spring Festival, the price of the main contract AL2603 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly fluctuated, ranging from around 23,080 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 23,800 yuan/ton [9] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In January 2026, the national consumer price index rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The industrial producer price index decreased 1.4% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points, and rose 0.4% month - on - month with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points. The industrial producer purchase price index decreased 1.4% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points, and rose 0.5% month - on - month with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points [6][13][14] 3. Supply and Demand Situation 3.1 Alumina - As of December 2025, domestic alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, a decrease of 127,200 tons from the previous month and a 6.7% year - on - year increase. As of February 12, 2026, the domestic alumina inventory totaled 98,000 tons [19] 3.2 Aluminum Products and Alloys - As of December 2025, the monthly production of aluminum products was 6.1356 million tons, an increase of 204,600 tons from the previous month with no year - on - year change. The monthly production of aluminum alloys was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 86,000 tons from the previous month and a 13.7% year - on - year increase [25] 4. Inventory Situation 4.1 Global Visible Inventory - As of February 13, 2026, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 297,340 tons, an increase of 52,200 tons from the previous week. As of February 23, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 473,550 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 10.79% [31] 4.2 Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 861,100 tons, an increase of 37,900 tons from the previous day. The breakdown by region is provided in the report [31]