苹果周报：年前销区走货加快，年后或将承压运行-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The apple market in 2026 has formed a game pattern of "supply - side support" and "demand - side drag". The strong reality of "low quantity, poor quality, and low inventory" on the supply side provides a solid bottom support for prices, while the weak expectation of "high price and low sales" on the demand side continuously suppresses the upward momentum. Apple prices are likely to fluctuate in the balance between supply support and demand pressure. High - quality goods may maintain relatively firm prices, while ordinary goods face price fluctuation pressure due to insufficient demand [6][54]. - The new - season apple production and quality decline, and low inventory strongly support prices. The current market is in a structural game stage of "spot support, futures strengthening, and distant contracts weakening". After the Spring Festival, the prices of medium - and low - grade farmer - sourced apples are likely to decline under pressure, while high - quality goods will remain stable and firm, showing a polarized price trend. The apple futures price may maintain a short - term weak and fluctuating trend [7][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Futures Prices: Last week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2605, showed an oscillating upward trend, with a significant overall increase. As of the afternoon close on February 13, 2026, the AP2605 contract was reported at 9835 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton for the week, a rise of 3.15% [5][10]. - Spot Prices: - Shandong: In the week before the Spring Festival, the overall shipment volume in Shandong's apple - producing areas was still high. In the second half of the week, new packaging gradually ended, and the sales of farmer - sourced apples were limited. In Penglai, the mainstream price of 75 first - and second - grade farmer - sourced apples was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji farmer - sourced slice - red apples were 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 farmer - sourced general goods were 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits were 1.7 - 2 yuan/jin [15]. - Shaanxi: Last week, the overall shipment in Shaanxi's apple - producing areas was average. The prices in Luochuan for 70 and above semi - commercial farmer - sourced apples were around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin for outbound, 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin for general goods, and 2.2 yuan/jin for high - grade inferior goods. In Baishui, 75 and above high - quality general farmer - sourced apples were about 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin [20]. 2. Producing Area Situation - As of February 13, 2026, the pre - festival apple trading in major producing areas such as Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Gansu basically ended, with few actual transactions and little price change [21]. - Shandong: In Qixia, the inventory apple trading basically ended, and the prices of 80 first - and second - grade inventory paper - bagged Fuji were 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin. In Yiyuan, the inventory Fuji trading was dull [22]. - Shaanxi: In Luochuan, the pre - festival trading of inventory Fuji ended, and the price of 70 and above semi - commercial inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji was 4.10 - 4.30 yuan/jin. In Weinan, the pre - festival stocking of inventory Fuji basically ended, and the prices remained stable and weak [22]. - Shanxi: In Yuncheng's Linfen, the e - commerce in cold storage continued to purchase, and the prices were basically stable [23]. - Gansu: In Jingning, the inventory Fuji trading basically ended, and the prices changed little [23]. 3. Inventory Situation - The peak storage volume of this season's late - Fuji apples was 7.6675 million tons, the lowest in the past five years. As of February 11, 2026, the total apple cold - storage inventory in major producing areas was 5.8815 million tons, a decrease of 316,500 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking speed slightly slowed down [31]. - Shandong: The inventory ratio in Shandong's apple - producing areas was 45.07%, a decrease of 1.98% from the previous week [31]. - Shaanxi: The inventory ratio in Shaanxi's apple - producing areas was 46.74%, a decrease of 2.08% from the previous week [31]. - Other Areas: The inventory ratios in Gansu, Shanxi, and Liaoning decreased by 3.75%, 2.01%, and 2.53% respectively from the previous week [32]. 4. Sales Area Situation - In the week before the Spring Festival, the number of early - morning arriving trucks in Guangzhou's Chalong market increased significantly. The market sales improved, and the goods were cleared quickly. The market selling prices were chaotic, with price - cut sales [36]. 5. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - Last week, the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia was about 0.3 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [40]. 6. Key Fruit Market - As of the 7th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six key fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.99 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.10 yuan/kg. Most of the six types of fruits rose this week, except for pineapples [44]. 7. Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in December 2025 was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples will increase quarter - on - quarter in the first quarter of 2026 [49]. 8. Production Statistics - In 2025, the national apple production was 34.3142 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.01%. The production in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased, while that in Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning increased [51]. 9. Market Outlook - The apple market in 2026 is in a game between supply - side support and demand - side drag. After the Spring Festival, the prices of medium - and low - grade farmer - sourced apples may decline under pressure, while high - quality goods will remain stable. The short - term apple futures prices may fluctuate weakly [54]. 10. Operation Strategies - The main contract of apple futures may fluctuate weakly in the short term. For unilateral trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider shorting lightly at high prices. For arbitrage, consider buying the 2605 contract and selling the 2610 contract. For options, consider buying long - term put options at an appropriate time [56][57].