长江期货聚烯烃周报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefins: Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, it is expected to experience a relatively strong oscillation. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, inventory levels, the situations in Venezuela and Iran, and fluctuations in crude oil prices [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic Market Review - On February 13, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6644 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.47%. The average price of LDPE was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% compared to the previous period. The average price of HDPE was 7375 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6930.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%. The South China basis of LLDPE was 286.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.79%, and the May - September spread was - 65 yuan/ton (-13) [11]. Key Data Tracking - Month - to - Month Spread: The 1 - 5 month spread on February 13, 2026, was 76 yuan/ton (a change of 22 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 65 yuan/ton (-13); and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 11 yuan/ton (-9) [19]. - Spot Price: Provided detailed spot prices of different varieties and regions of plastics on February 13, 2026, with most prices remaining stable [20][21]. - Cost: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 66.31 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.50 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 71.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.51 US dollars/barrel. The quoted price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton, with no change [23]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was - 830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 191 yuan/ton [28]. - Supply: This week, the production start - up rate of polyethylene in China was 87.30%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 72.39 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.61%. This week's maintenance loss was 7.38 tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons compared to the previous week [32]. - 2026 Production Plan: Multiple companies have new production capacity planned to be put into operation in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [35]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines are under maintenance, and the resumption time of some production lines is uncertain [36]. - Demand: This week, the overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural films was 24.74%, a decrease of 5.44% compared to the previous week; the start - up rate of PE packaging films was 20.30%, a decrease of 18.52%; and the start - up rate of PE pipes was 9.33%, a decrease of 14.13% [38]. - Downstream Production Ratio: Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 35.7%, with a difference of 1.7% from the annual average level. The proportion of low - pressure pipes shows a significant difference from the annual average data, currently accounting for 12.6%, with a difference of 3.9% from the annual average level [42]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 51.63 tons, an increase of 3.13 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [44]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 9428 lots, with no change compared to the previous week [48]. PP Market Review - On February 13, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6568 yuan/ton, a decrease of 123 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84% [53]. Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: Provided prices and price changes of various PP - related products and other plastics on February 13, 2026 [56][59]. - Basis: On February 13, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6640 yuan/ton (no change). The PP basis was 72 yuan/ton (123), and the May - September spread was - 32 yuan/ton (1) [61]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The 1 - 5 month spread on February 13, 2026, was 13 yuan/ton (a change of 18 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 25 yuan/ton (7); and the 9 - 1 month spread was 12 yuan/ton (-25) [67]. - Cost: Consistent with the cost data of plastics, last week, WTI crude oil closed at 66.31 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.50 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 71.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.51 US dollars/barrel. The quoted price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton, with no change [70]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was - 642.23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.10 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 166.21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87 yuan/ton [75]. - Supply: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.93%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.19%. The weekly output of PP powder was 4.63 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.27% [79]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many PP production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, and the resumption time of some production lines is uncertain [83]. - Demand: This week, the average start - up rate of PP downstream industries was 41.78% (-8.06%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 27.86% (-8.88%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.25% (-4.30%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 29.74% (-23.28%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 29.53% (-4.17%) [85]. - Import and Export Profit: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 379.05 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27.70 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 32.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.19 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [91]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 39.12 tons (+5.92%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 7.30% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 3.55% month - on - month; and the port inventory increased by 14.44% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 495.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.02%, and the raw material inventory of BOPP was 15.10 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.40% [93][97]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 18679 lots, an increase of 1475 lots compared to the previous week [101].