所长早读-20260224

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints 2.1 Overall Market Outlook - The stock index futures are expected to have a good start in the Year of the Horse. During the holiday, the overseas market was stable with a slight increase, while the US stocks adjusted due to AI concerns and tariff uncertainties. There were no significant unexpected negative events during the holiday, which has a positive impact on risk appetite. The new US tariff policy may lead to a reduction in tariffs on China. Domestic factors such as holiday travel consumption, box - office revenue, and the rise of the Chinese robot industry, especially the latter, are expected to boost market sentiment and become an important supporting force for the market. Historically, the market style tends to favor technology stocks after the Spring Festival, and the pre - two sessions policy expectations may be traded before the Two Sessions, but there may be a pull - back later [8][9]. 2.2 Commodity Market Analysis - Different commodities have different trends. For example, copper prices are volatile due to increased uncertainty; zinc shows a range - bound trend; lead has a weak supply - demand situation and is range - bound; tin is affected by tariffs; aluminum has a relatively strong sentiment after the festival, while alumina is range - bound; and so on for various other commodities [12][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Tariff Policy - The US Customs and Border Protection will stop collecting the illegally - imposed tariffs from February 24. The suspension of this tariff does not affect other tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The US Senate Democrats will prevent any attempt to extend the tariffs imposed by Trump under Article 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which may lead to the collapse of the tariff system established in Trump's second term [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The focus is on stock index futures, with a high attention level of ★★★★. The market is expected to be strong in the early post - holiday period, and later, attention should be paid to AI narratives, tariff and geopolitical changes, domestic policy directions, and industrial hotspots [8]. 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Base Metals - Copper: Uncertainty increases, and prices are volatile. The US stock market declined due to AI concerns and tariff risks, and the US Customs will stop collecting illegal tariffs. Harmony Gold's new Australian copper mine needs two years of renovation. The global refined copper supply had a surplus of 98,000 tons in December 2025 [15][17]. - Zinc: Ranges - bound. The Ministry of Commerce urged the US to cancel unilateral tariff measures. Wall Street analysts believe that the effective tariff rate may decline slightly in the second half of the year, and there may be potential tax refunds [18][19]. - Lead: Weak supply - demand, range - bound. The US stock market was affected by AI concerns and tariff risks, and the US Customs will stop collecting illegal tariffs [21]. - Tin: Affected by tariffs. The price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract decreased by 7.05%, while the London tin 3M electronic disk increased by 1.35%. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs [24]. - Aluminum: Strong sentiment after the festival. Alumina is range - bound, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The US Democrats will stop the extension of tariffs and promote a mandatory refund plan. Trump may consider military action against Iran [27][29]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - Platinum: Boosted by the strong performance of silver. - Palladium: Volatile and slightly strong due to tariff disturbances [31]. 3.3.3 Other Metals - Nickel: There is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradiction in nickel ore. The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses, and some nickel - related projects in Indonesia are facing various situations such as policy adjustments, fines, and monopolistic investigations [35][37]. - Stainless Steel: The cost support center has moved up, but off - season inventory accumulation restricts its elasticity [35]. 3.3.4 Energy - related Commodities - Crude Oil: The report does not directly analyze crude oil, but the impact of geopolitical factors on the energy market is mentioned, which may have an impact on related products such as fuel oil [140]. - Fuel Oil: May gap up at the opening, and short - term fluctuations will continue to expand. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to rebound [128]. 3.3.5 Chemical Commodities - PTA and PX: Supported by costs, with a relatively strong upward trend. During the Spring Festival, the US dollar price of PX increased significantly, and it is expected that the domestic PTA price will gap up at the opening. The polyester industry is expected to enter a positive feedback pattern [73][74]. - MEG: Range - bound operation. The overseas ethylene glycol price was stable during the Spring Festival, and the domestic market is expected to remain stable on the first trading day after the festival. The supply - side start - up rate is rising, and there is a large inventory accumulation in February [75]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Commodities - Palm Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors causing oil price increases, the pre - holiday fundamental logic continues. - Soybean Oil: The US soybean market is stable, and the soybean oil price rebounds within a range [156]. - Soybean Meal: The US soybean market changed little during the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy [162]. - Soybean: Attention should be paid to market sentiment, and the price may be slightly strong [162]. - Corn: Volatile and slightly strong. The US Department of Agriculture predicts that the US corn planting area will decrease in 2026, and the global corn output may decline in the 2026/27 season [165][166]. - Sugar: Range - bound consolidation. India's sugar production has increased in the 2025/26 season, and China's sugar import and production data also show certain trends [169][170]. - Cotton: Expected to open slightly higher. The domestic cotton spot basis is relatively stable, and the ICE cotton futures first declined and then rebounded during the Spring Festival [174][175]. - Eggs: Volatile adjustment [180]. - Hogs: The spot price during the holiday was lower than expected [183]. - Peanuts: Volatile operation [188]. 3.4 Shipping Index - The container shipping index (European line) is in a volatile market, and a range - bound trading strategy should be adopted. The supply - side shipping capacity has changed during the Spring Festival, with February remaining stable, March being revised downwards, and April being revised upwards. The demand side has certain differences in the short term, and the European import demand has resilience in the medium - to long - term [130][139][140].