宝城期货动力煤早报（2026年2月24日）-20260224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply side of thermal coal is the main focus of future market games. Besides the potential positive risks of the domestic "anti - involution policy", the coal export quota of Indonesia is also an important uncertain factor. Without significant changes in the supply side, the supply - demand pattern of China's thermal coal may remain loose, and coal prices may maintain low - level operation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Price Fluctuation Calculation and Classification - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2] - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly oscillating, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly oscillating, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating only apply to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [3][4] 3.3 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply side of thermal coal is the main focus of future market games. The domestic "anti - involution policy" and Indonesia's coal export quota are important factors. Without significant supply - side changes, the supply - demand pattern of China's thermal coal may remain loose, and coal prices may stay at a low level [1][5]