PX期价有望震荡企稳

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the downstream demand for PX is difficult to recover rapidly in the short term, driven by the cost of a sharp rise in upstream crude oil prices, combined with the concentrated maintenance of PX plants in the second quarter and the improvement of downstream polyester consumption, it is expected that the domestic PX futures will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend after the Spring Festival [2][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The domestic PX supply side has entered a situation where the existing production capacity is fully utilized, there is a vacuum in new production capacity, and the supply elasticity has significantly narrowed. From 2024 - 2025, there will be no large - scale new PX plants put into production in China for two consecutive years. The current total production capacity is stable at about 44 million tons, and the effective operating capacity is about 42.5 million tons. In 2026, 4.1 million tons of new PX production capacity is planned to be added, but there will be no new production capacity released in the first half of the year [3] - Driven by high processing fees, domestic PX plants have been operating at a high level. As of the week of February 13, 2026, the domestic PX output was 758,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the domestic PX industry was 91.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 80.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.97% [3] - In the first quarter, the maintenance volume of domestic PX plants was limited, with an overall maintenance loss of about 326,700 tons, having a limited impact on the supply side. In the second quarter, large - scale plants such as Shenghong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical will undergo concentrated maintenance, and the expected maintenance loss will reach 800,000 tons, and the expectation of supply contraction is gradually increasing [3] Demand Side - PX demand is highly dependent on the downstream PTA industry. Currently, the demand shows the characteristics of seasonal weakness, strong rigid demand support, and clear medium - term recovery. As of mid - February, the domestic PTA operating rate was 76.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09 percentage points, and the weekly average output was 1.462 million tons. It still maintained a medium - to - high operating rate, providing rigid demand support for PX [5][6] - In the short term, affected by the Spring Festival holiday effect, the polyester industry chain has entered the traditional off - season. As of mid - February, the domestic polyester operating rate dropped to 77.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.54 percentage points. The demand transmission to PX has been weakened. However, in the medium and long term, the domestic polyester production capacity will still maintain a growth rate of 3% - 9% in 2026. After the downstream resumes work in mid - to - late March, the polyester operating rate will quickly recover, driving PX demand to return to the growth channel [6] Market Situation - Affected by high supply and weak demand, the domestic PX has entered a seasonal inventory accumulation stage. In February, the inventory accumulation amplitude further expanded, the spot market had abundant circulating goods, the willingness of traders to stock up decreased, and the basis weakened [7] - The PX - naphtha spread has dropped from the previous high of $337/ton to $288/ton, and the processing fee has been significantly compressed. However, compared with the historical average, the current PX processing fee is still at a medium - to - high level, supporting domestic plants to maintain high - level operation [7]