国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Uncertainty increases, price fluctuates [2][4] - Zinc: Rangeside fluctuation [2][7] - Lead: Weak supply and demand, rangeside fluctuation [2][10] - Tin: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs [2][12] - Aluminum: Post - holiday trend is relatively strong; Alumina: Rangeside fluctuation; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2][16] - Platinum: Boosted by the strengthening of silver [2][19] - Palladium: Tariff disturbances resurface, fluctuating with an upward bias [2][20] - Nickel: Speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel still exists, continuously focus on nickel ore contradictions; Stainless steel: Cost support center moves up, off - season inventory accumulation restricts elasticity [2][24] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 100,380, down 1.91%; the closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,901, up 0.35%. Trading volume and positions of Shanghai copper and LME copper changed, and inventory and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: AI concerns intensify, tariff war risks resurface, and US stocks decline. The US Customs will stop collecting illegal tariffs, and the European Parliament suspends the approval of the EU - US trade agreement. Harmony Gold's new Australian copper mine needs two - year transformation. China promotes central enterprises to invest in computing power. Codelco's copper production increased in December 2025, and there was a global refined copper supply surplus in December 2025 [4][6]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [6] Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24,250, down 1.70%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,378, up 0.91%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, premiums, and inventory [7]. - News: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urges the US to cancel unilateral tariff measures. Wall Street analyzes that tariffs may be lowered in the second half of the year [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [9] Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,700, unchanged; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,966.5, up 0.69%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, premiums, and inventory [10]. - News: Similar to copper, AI concerns and tariff war risks affect the market, and the US stops collecting illegal tariffs [10]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [10] Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 365,400, down 7.05%; the closing price of the LME tin 3M electronic disk was 47,370, up 1.35%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and prices [13]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump mentions higher tariffs, the EU may suspend the US - EU trade agreement, the German Chancellor visits China, and the Fed official mentions AI - related job cuts [15]. - Trend Intensity: 1 [14] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: There were detailed data changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, premiums, and inventory of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [16]. - Comprehensive News: US Democrats oppose tariff extension and advocate for refund. Trump may attack Iran. [18] - Trend Intensity: Aluminum: 1; Alumina: 0; Cast aluminum alloy: 1 [18] Platinum and Palladium - Fundamental Data: There were price changes in platinum and palladium futures and spot prices, as well as changes in trading volume, positions, and spreads [20]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump will visit China, the EU suspends the US - EU trade agreement, there are US economic data, and there are developments in US - Iran relations. Hong Kong aims to be an international gold trading center, etc. [23] - Trend Intensity: Platinum: 0; Palladium: 0 [22] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: There were data changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and related prices of nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as changes in the prices and spreads of products in the industrial chain [24]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia restricts new smelting licenses, revises the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and there are issues such as corporate violations, port monopolies, and mine restarts [24][25][26]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel: 0; Stainless steel: 0 [29]