备货进入尾声支撑走弱，降重有限+大猪压力未释节后猪价承压

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the market is experiencing downward pressure on pig prices due to the end of pre-holiday stocking and limited weight reduction, alongside ongoing pressure from large pigs [3][4] - The average price of live pigs as of February 13, 2026, is 11.66 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.40 CNY/kg [3][4] - The report anticipates a seasonal decline in demand in the first 1-2 weeks post-holiday, compounded by insufficient weight reduction and potential concentrated supply release, leading to significant downward pressure on the spot market [4][22] Weekly Market Performance - From February 9 to February 13, the agricultural sector underperformed the market by 2.51 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41% while the agricultural index fell by 2.10% [6][26] - The fishery sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with notable stock performances from companies like Yuegui Co. (+24.22%), Xuelong Bio (+11.98%), and *ST Jiawo (+9.07%) [6][26] Price Tracking - As of February 13, 2026, the average price of live pigs is 11.73 CNY/kg, down 0.41 CNY/kg from the previous week; the average price of piglets is 25.50 CNY/kg, down 0.04 CNY/kg [7][39] - The average price of white strips has decreased to 16.45 CNY/kg, down 0.21 CNY/kg week-on-week [39] - The average price of beef has increased to 66.26 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.26% [47] - The price of grass carp has risen to 17.17 CNY/kg, up 1.06% week-on-week [49] Key News - From 2026 to the end of 2030, three departments will exempt import value-added tax on imported seeds and sources to enhance agricultural quality and competitiveness [5][36] - In 2025, China's agricultural insurance premium income reached 155.55 billion CNY, providing risk protection of 5.3 trillion CNY [5][36] - The central government has allocated 1.25 billion CNY to support winter wheat growth initiatives [5][36]