格林期货早盘提示：国债-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term "oscillating" rating for the treasury bond market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's social financing scale in January 2026 increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the significant increase in government bond net financing. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, also exceeding market expectations but with a year - on - year decrease. The overall inflation level in January showed a mild recovery, and the PMI indicators indicated a moderately weak economy. The Ministry of Finance will ensure that the overall expenditure remains stable, and the central bank has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.04%, while the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.03% [1] 3.2 Important Information - Open Market: On February 14, the central bank conducted 38 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38 billion yuan [1] - Funds Market: On February 14, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose slightly. DR001's weighted average was 1.31% (previous trading day: 1.25%), and DR007's weighted average was 1.50% (previous trading day: 1.41%) [1] - Cash Bond Market: On February 14, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated slightly. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.35 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.74 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.29 BP to 1.79%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.20 BP to 2.25% [1] - Social Financing and Credit Data: In January 2026, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, 317.8 billion yuan less year - on - year. The RMB loans in January increased by 4.71 trillion yuan. At the end of January, M2 balance was 347.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and M1 balance was 117.97 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [1] - Real Estate Market: In January, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points. The second - hand housing prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - International News: On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy was illegal. Trump then announced a 10% import tariff on global goods, which was later raised to 15%. The US GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 1.4%, lower than expected. The 2025 annual GDP growth was 2.2%, lower than 2024. The core PCE price index in December 2025 showed inflation pressure. The US manufacturing and service PMI in February 2026 showed a slowdown in business activity [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's social financing scale in January 2026 exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the increase in government bond net financing. The RMB loans in the credit caliber also exceeded expectations but decreased year - on - year. The inflation level in January showed a mild recovery, and the PMI indicators indicated a moderately weak economy. The government will maintain a stable fiscal policy, and the central bank has room for monetary policy adjustment. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]