电解铝期货品种周报-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The medium - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is oscillating strongly. Before mid - March, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations. The market may run strongly due to restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply, but geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, changes in the Fed's interest policy expectations, and tariff fluctuations are important factors disturbing the market. The low - end price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500, and the high - end around 24,000 - 25,000. The price of aluminum ingots after the Spring Festival in 2026 shows a trend of bottoming out, digesting, and then oscillating and recovering. In the short term, it is weakly affected by high inventory, and in the medium term, it will gradually strengthen with the full resumption of work of downstream industries and the start of the traditional peak season, mainly with range - based recovery and no significant unilateral market. [4][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall View - Bauxite market: It shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With the increase in shipping volume since January, the inventory at major Chinese ports is expected to gradually increase in mid - to late February. The cost of transporting bauxite from Guinean mines to ports varies greatly. Large mines have strong cost - resistance, while some small - and medium - sized inland mines are under cost pressure but have not significantly reduced production. The Guinean government's quota system policy, if introduced, may significantly affect supply, but there is no official confirmation yet. [9] - Alumina market: As of February 13, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity is about 93.3 million tons (93.6 million tons last week), and the operating rate is 83.46%. The operating capacity has slightly declined from the high level since October 2025 but is still at a high level in recent years. [9] - Electrolytic aluminum production: In January, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 46.1865 million tons, and the output was 44.7793 million tons. The production capacity has plateaued, but the output has slightly increased. In 2026, the domestic supply is under rigid constraints. Although the high aluminum price has promoted an increase in overseas marginal production, the new energy investment of electrolytic aluminum plants in Europe and the US is severely restricted by carbon taxes and high electricity prices, and new projects in countries like India and Indonesia are progressing slowly due to power supply issues. The global aluminum supply elasticity in 2026 is expected to be very small. [9] - Electrolytic aluminum import and export: The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 2,400 yuan/ton (about 2,000 yuan/ton last week), at a low level in recent years. In 2026, China's aluminum profile exports are expected to show a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthroughs, but increasing external barriers". Although the overall growth rate may slow down, the export structure in high - value - added fields such as new energy and transportation lightweighting continues to optimize. [9] - Electrolytic aluminum inventory: As of February 12, the social inventory of aluminum was about 914,000 tons, and on February 19, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants was about 191,000 tons, both near the same - period high since 2024. On the 12th, the social inventory of aluminum rods was 309,000 tons, at a high level in the past 10 years. However, the inventory accumulation is expected to reach an inflection point between February 24 - 26. The LME aluminum inventory is about 475,600 tons, which has slightly declined since 2025 and is at a low level in recent years. [9] - Alumina profit: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 2,680 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about - 50 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 160 yuan/ton. [10] - Electrolytic aluminum profit: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,600 yuan/ton (6,500 yuan/ton last week), at a high level in history. [10] 2. Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend judgment: The medium - term trend is oscillating strongly, and before mid - March, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations. The market may run strongly due to restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply. [4] - Trend judgment logic: The start of restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply will drive the market to run strongly. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, changes in the Fed's interest policy expectations, and tariff fluctuations are important factors disturbing the market. [4] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Keep an appropriate inventory. [4] 3. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: Continue to hold medium - term long positions, and new long positions can be appropriately established below 23,000. [7] - This week's strategy suggestion: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory, and for spot enterprises, consider light - position long positions or clear positions for the holiday. [7] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - The full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,680 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 50 yuan/ton, a theoretical profit of the futures main - contract of about 160 yuan/ton, and a theoretical import profit of about - 50 yuan/ton (the same as last week). The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton (the same as last week), the theoretical profit is about 6,600 yuan/ton (about 6,500 yuan/ton last week), and the theoretical import loss is about 2,400 yuan/ton (about 2,000 yuan/ton last week). [12] 5. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,540 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,520 yuan/ton before the holiday. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and it has a neutral - to - supportive impact on electrolytic aluminum. [21][23] 6. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of LME aluminum has slightly narrowed recently but is still at a high level since 2018. In the latest period, the net long position of funds has continued to decline slightly. Since late January, long - position holders have slightly reduced their positions at high levels, while short - position holders have slightly increased their positions. Currently, long - position holders have heavy floating - profit positions, which may lead to repeated high - level market conditions. [25]