黑色金属数据日报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black sector's opening market is expected to be stable, and then observe the spot market's start around the Lantern Festival. For steel, it is recommended to wait and see, and look for profit - taking opportunities for the long basis position given before the festival [2]. - For manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term long positions are advisable at low prices [6]. - For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions. In the long - term, industries can actively establish cash - and - carry positions if the market presents upward opportunities [5]. - For iron ore, stop losses on short positions and enter long positions at the support level [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On February 13th, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3095.00 yuan/ton with a decline of 4.00 yuan (-0.13%); HC2610 closed at 3236.00 yuan/ton with a decline of 4.00 yuan (-0.12%); 12609 closed at 730.50 yuan/ton with a decline of 15.50 yuan (-2.08%); J2609 closed at 1751.00 yuan/ton with an increase of 10.50 yuan (0.60%); JM2609 closed at 1201.50 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.00 yuan (-0.17%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3055.00 yuan/ton with an increase of 4.00 yuan (0.13%); HC2605 closed at 3222.00 yuan/ton with no change; 12605 closed at 746.00 yuan/ton with a decline of 18.00 yuan (-2.36%); J2605 closed at 1682.00 yuan/ton with an increase of 17.50 yuan (1.05%); JM2605 closed at 1121.00 yuan/ton with a decline of 3.50 yuan (-0.31) [1]. - On February 13th, the cross - month spreads: RB2605 - 2610 was - 40.00 yuan/ton with an increase of 6.00 yuan; HC2605 - 2610 was - 14.00 yuan/ton with an increase of 5.00 yuan; 12605 - 2609 was 15.50 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.50 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was - 69.00 yuan/ton with an increase of 6.00 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was - 80.50 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50 yuan [1]. - On February 13th, for the spreads/price ratios/profits of the main contracts, the coil - to - rebar spread was 167.00 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.00 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.10 with an increase of 0.09; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.50 with an increase of 0.01; the rebar's on - paper profit was - 74.65 yuan/ton with an increase of 22.40 yuan; the coking's on - paper profit was 191.07 yuan/ton with an increase of 16.67 yuan [1]. Spot Market - On February 13th, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3210.00 yuan/ton, 3140.00 yuan/ton, and 3400.00 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the price of Tangshan billet was 2900.00 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 96.40 with no change [1]. - On February 13th, the spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3230.00 yuan/ton, 3260.00 yuan/ton, and 3230.00 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the billet - to - product price difference was 310.00 yuan/ton with no change; the price of PB at Rizhao Port was 753.00 yuan/ton with a decline of 9.00 yuan [1]. - On February 13th, the spot prices of Super Special Powder at Qingdao Port, a certain product, coking coal at Ganqimao, and quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port (ex - warehouse) were 645.00 yuan/ton, 699.00 yuan/ton, 1230.00 yuan/ton, and 1480.00 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Super Special Powder and a certain product declined by 5.00 yuan, and the price of PB at Qingdao Port declined by 8.00 yuan [1]. Steel - During the Spring Festival, the global equity markets mostly rose, and the market risk appetite was generally positive. The Singapore iron ore swap, a related overseas variety, declined slightly. The iron ore EF main contract closed at 95.35 on February 23rd at 9:30, a decrease of 1.9 US dollars (-1.9%) compared to the price of 97.25 at 15:00 on February 13th. The domestic spot market has not started yet, and the spot price of Tangshan billet remained stable at 2890 - 2900 yuan/ton during the holiday [2]. - After the Spring Festival, there will be a pulse high point in spot inventory, and the inventory is expected to be slightly higher than normal. Plate and billet inventories are at historical highs. The pressure of winter storage is not large this year, and the active selling pressure of spot goods is expected to be light. The late Spring Festival and good post - festival weather are conducive to resuming work and production, and the policy signals from the Two Sessions may be a macro - driving point [2]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - During the holiday, the macro and industrial fundamentals remained stable. After the holiday, the molten iron output is expected to rise, and the direct demand is expected to improve. The overall profit of alloy plants is under pressure but has improved stage - by - stage. The production and operating rate are lower than the same period last year, and the overall production remains stable. However, the driving force for alloy plants to reduce or control production is insufficient, and the pressure of medium - term oversupply remains [3]. - Policy benefits and cost support are positive for prices. The quotes of overseas mainstream manganese mines to China have risen, strengthening the cost support for manganese - silicon. The electricity price fluctuates, and the cost center of double - silicon has shifted upward. Industrial policies such as "dual - carbon", energy - consumption dual - control, and anti - involution policies have an impact on the supply of double - silicon and strengthen the expectation of cost support [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - During the holiday, the spot market was on vacation. The price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at ports was 1470 (no change week - on - week), and the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke was 1670 (no change week - on - week). The coking coal price index was 272.1 (no change week - on - week). The inventory of Mongolian coal in the supervision area exceeded 4 million tons, and the sales pressure of trading enterprises increased, with prices showing a downward trend. The mainstream Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was quoted at 1010 - 1020 yuan/ton [5]. - During the holiday, affected by factors such as the repeated changes in US tariff policies, the military confrontation between the US and Iran, and the AI narrative, most overseas risk assets rose, which was beneficial to market risk appetite. Since part of the post - holiday decline expectation of the black sector was realized by pre - holiday funds, it is not recommended to enter the market unilaterally after the holiday. It is advisable to wait and see first [5]. - The domestic spot market has not started yet. The supply side will recover first, and domestic coal mine supply and Mongolian coal customs clearance are expected to gradually resume this week. The demand side, including coking and downstream steel mills, will also gradually recover, but due to environmental protection restrictions before the major meeting in March and the uncertainty of the recovery of terminal industries, combined with the seasonal active de - stocking of coking coal and coke by downstream steel mills, the recovery of the downstream is expected to be weaker than that of the supply side [5]. - In the short - term, the black spot market may continue the off - season characteristics before the holiday, showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, considering that the downstream demand will start after the Two Sessions, the market can still expect the subsequent peak - season performance in the next two weeks, which depends on the overall market risk appetite and domestic macro - guidance. In the long - term, the market is still pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and the futures price may gradually test the support at the cost of Mongolian coal agreements (expected to be around 900 - 950). It is recommended that industries actively establish cash - and - carry positions if the market presents upward opportunities, and wait and see for unilateral positions in the short - term [5]. Iron Ore - During the long holiday, the overseas market generally performed strongly, but iron ore was one of the varieties with a relatively large decline. On February 14th, an accident occurred at the Simfor mining area in Simandou, and production was suspended, but it did not affect the price. As of 7:00 on February 21st, the swap declined 1.39% to 95.8 [6]. - This year's Spring Festival is late, which means that the market demand will start quickly after the new year. The "Two Sessions" in early March may release macro - policy signals. The post - holiday market environment is expected to be warm, but it needs to be verified in real - time. The swap price is approaching the bottom of the previous large - shock range. With the domestic warm expectation, the price has strong support and there is a certain demand for rebound. However, due to the pressure of port inventory, the overall upward space is limited [6].