甲醇周报：基本面未有明显改善，后续仍关注宏观-20260224

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current supply - demand fundamentals of methanol remain weak, with support mainly coming from the macro - level and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow macro - level, geopolitical, and crude oil guidance [8][34][35] - In the future, methanol may show a moderately strong oscillation. Consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [9] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - In the week before the Spring Festival, affected by the overall decline of commodities, methanol futures declined and adjusted. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,193 yuan/ton, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week [5][13] - In the spot market, the coastal market's trading atmosphere weakened as the Spring Festival approached, with prices fluctuating slightly. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,170 - 2,240 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton. In the inland market, pre - holiday inventory clearance was successful, and some local markets showed signs of recovery. The price in Ordos North ranged from 1,805 - 1,873 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2,180 - 2,190 yuan/ton [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: In the week before the Spring Festival, China's methanol production slightly declined to 2,056,795 tons, a decrease of 240 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 92.07%, a 0.01% decrease [14] - Downstream Demand: As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin capacity utilization rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 38.95%, a 0.75 - percentage - point increase; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.38%, a decrease; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased; the chloride capacity utilization rate increased to 78.52%; and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased to 18.51% [18][20] - Inventory: As of February 11, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.03 tons, a 7.61% decrease; the order backlog was 31.50 tons, a 9.75% increase. The port sample inventory was 143.22 tons, a 1.50% increase [21][24] - Profit: In the week of 20260206 - 0212, the theoretical profit of domestic sample methanol production processes improved. Coal - based production losses narrowed, coke - oven gas - based production profits increased, and natural - gas - based production profits remained stable [28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: During the Spring Festival, it is expected that more domestic methanol plants will resume production than undergo maintenance. China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.072 billion tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 92.75%, a slight increase in production [29] - Downstream Demand: The olefin capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase if there are no unexpected device failures; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline; and the chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to change little [32][33] - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to reach 43.43 tons during the Spring Festival, an increase. After the holiday, the inventory will gradually decrease. The port methanol inventory is expected to be stable or increase slightly after the Spring Festival, with a focus on the unloading speed of foreign vessels in Zhejiang and ship departures during the holiday [33]