国新国证期货早报-20260224

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 13 - On February 13, the last trading day before the long - holiday, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26% to 4082.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.28% to 14100.19 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.57% to 3275.96 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1999.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 161.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on February 23, closing at 4660.41, a decrease of 59.17 from the previous period [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - On February 13, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1687.6, a rise of 17.3 from the previous period. The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1134.7 yuan, a decrease of 2.0 from the previous period [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, and daily production has a slight decline. Coke inventory has a small increase, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron is at a low - season level, and steel profit is average. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1179 vehicles. The output of coking coal mines has a small increase. The spot auction transaction is inversely proportional to the price fluctuations of the futures. Under the influence of volatile futures prices, the transaction price mainly shows a small decline, and the terminal inventory has a large increase. The total inventory of coking coal has a large increase, and the production - end inventory has a slight increase. The winter - storage demand is coming to an end [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price has been oscillating upward recently. Excessive rainfall in major sugar - producing states in India may lead to a decline in sugarcane production, which may limit India's sugar exports. During the long - holiday, the US sugar price oscillated upward. Brazil's geographical and statistical institute expects the sugarcane planting area in 2026 to be 9.495363 million hectares, the same as last month's forecast and a 0.7% decrease from the previous year. The sugarcane output is estimated to be 706.96119 million tons, the same as last month's forecast and a 0.6% increase from the previous year. Five trading houses estimate that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 market year (ending in September) will be between 28.5 - 29 million tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - During the long - holiday, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price oscillated upward. ANRPC indicates that with the accelerated growth of the automobile industry in emerging and developed economies, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The global natural rubber production increased by 1.4% in 2025 and is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026. During the long - holiday, the Japanese rubber price oscillated upward [5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - During the Spring Festival, the main contract of CBOT soybeans showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation. Multiple positive factors such as China's commitment to purchase more US soybeans, dry weather in some parts of Argentina, a record - high soybean crushing volume in the US in January, and the EPA's plan to submit a biodiesel blending quota proposal for 2026 have boosted the US soybean price. Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and a bumper harvest is certain, with export expectations at a historical high. The USDA Outlook Forum expects the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season to increase to 85 million acres, indicating a long - term loose supply. In the domestic market, oil mills are gradually resuming work after the festival, the operating rate is rising, port soybean inventory is abundant, and soybean supply is loose. The soybean arrival volume from February to March will increase compared with the previous period, and the subsequent crushing volume will gradually rise, resulting in a generally loose supply of soybean meal. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America and the soybean arrival volume [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - After the festival, large - sized pigs are being concentratedly sold in the market, and the back - logged pig sources are continuously released, resulting in a generally loose supply. As of the end of January, the inventory of fertile sows in the country reached 39.58 million, slightly decreasing month - on - month but still at a relatively high level year - on - year, which supports sufficient supply. The improvement in breeding efficiency further amplifies the effective supply. After the festival, pork consumption has officially entered the off - season. The previous pickling and stocking are all over, and the household holiday stock has not been digested yet. The fresh - meat market's digestion capacity has declined, and it has entered the annual off - season. The demand side has weak support for the market. It is recommended to focus on the reduction progress of fertile sows and the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - During the long - holiday, the outer - market Malaysian palm oil maintained a range - bound oscillation, rising 2.88% compared with the pre - festival closing price. According to SPPOMA data, from February 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 23.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 22.24% month - on - month. According to ITS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 20 was 863,358 tons, a decrease of 8.9% compared with the same period last month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - During the 2026 Spring Festival, the Shanghai copper market was closed from February 14 to February 23. On February 13, the main contract closed at 100,380 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 100,780 yuan/ton, in the range of 99,400 - 102,350 yuan/ton, with a position of 140,000 and a trading volume of 140,000. The outer - market LME copper showed a V - shaped oscillation, first falling and then rising, in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 US dollars/ton. At the beginning of the holiday, the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on the price; at the end of the holiday, the expectation of Asian resumption of work and the tight supply supported the price to rebound, with a slight increase compared with the pre - festival price. The domestic main contract had no trading and no position change during the holiday, and the price was anchored to the outer - market and the expectation of resumption of work. The global copper mine is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee is at a low level, which provides bottom support. The inventory accumulation during the domestic holiday is limited. Before the holiday, there was profit - taking at a high level, and the low liquidity during the holiday amplified the outer - market fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream resumption - of - work rhythm, LME/bonded inventory, and the Fed's policy signals [5]. 2.8 Cotton - Before the festival, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,740 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 143 lots compared with the previous trading day. Internationally, the US cotton price rose, and the weekly line closed in the positive [6]. 2.9 Iron Ore - Before the festival, affected by the low profit rate of steel mills and weak demand, the growth rate of molten iron was slow. After the festival, the resumption of work of steel mills may drive the replenishment demand for raw materials, and the iron ore supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.10 Asphalt - Currently, the asphalt supply is seasonally shrinking, refineries are operating at a low load, and the terminal demand is weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term asphalt price is oscillating [6]. 2.11 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 787 on Friday, with a minimum of 785, a maximum of 791.5, and closed at 779.5, with a daily increase in positions of 242 lots. On February 13, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Although the outer - market price has increased, the domestic spot market was stable before the festival, and the situation needs to be verified after the festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - market sentiment on the price [6]. 2.12 Steel - After the festival, the demand will gradually recover and is unlikely to explode suddenly. With the convening of important meetings, the positive macro - policy expectations are released, and the market sentiment is warming up. Coupled with the rigid - demand replenishment of terminal enterprises after resuming work, the main task of the market before the Two Sessions is to digest the social inventory. Mid - to - late March is the real demand verification period and the key point of the market [6]. 2.13 Alumina - The market was relatively stable during the Spring Festival. Before the festival, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly, and the supply improved marginally. After the festival, attention should be paid to the production - start and production - reduction efforts. However, limited by the limited demand increase and the unopened export window, the overall inventory is still accumulating, and the industry supply - demand situation is still in excess. If the supply side fails to continue to shrink, alumina will still be in a weak situation [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - In 2026, the supply - side changes of global electrolytic aluminum are significantly disturbed. The planned new production capacity in Indonesia, India and other places exceeds 2 million tons, but the production - start process is slow due to disturbances in power costs, infrastructure, etc. The domestic production capacity utilization rate is close to saturation, and the room for further production increase is limited. In the short term, the supply - demand situation will remain in a tight - balance state, which may continue to support the aluminum price. The demand side is expected to be stable and improving. Aluminum has strong financial and macro - attributes, and the pressure effect of the off - peak and peak seasons on the fundamentals is weakened. The aluminum price will generally remain at a high level, with a wider fluctuation range, and the seasonality and regularity may be weakened [6].