我国大豆产能提升关键点：大面积单产提升

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The consecutive mention of "large - scale yield per unit area improvement" in the No. 1 Central Documents of 2025 and 2026 is crucial for enhancing China's soybean production capacity. Given limited arable land, increasing soybean yield per unit area is more important than expanding the planting area, and continuous promotion of large - scale soybean yield per unit area improvement is necessary [1][37] - China's soybean yield per unit area has been rising, but there is still a significant gap compared with the global average and other major grain and oil crops. The low yield is due to weak agricultural irrigation infrastructure, poor planting and field management technology, a large gap in mechanization and automation, and slow technology promotion [2][38] - There is a large potential for China to increase soybean yield per unit area. By promoting high - yield, high - oil, and high - protein varieties, supporting planting, field management, and harvesting technologies, and integrating and promoting high - yield and efficient technical models, the goal of an average national soybean yield of 360 jin per mu in 2030 can be achieved, with a compound annual growth rate of about 5.78% from 2026 to 2030 [3][39] Summary by Directory 1. 2026 No. 1 Central Document Continues the Policy of "Promoting Large - Scale Yield per Unit Area Improvement of Grain and Oil Crops" - The 2026 No. 1 Central Document, released on February 3, 2026, proposed to stabilize grain output at around 1.4 trillion jin, and continue to promote large - scale yield per unit area improvement of grain and oil crops and consolidate and enhance soybean production capacity [5] - From 2023 to 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and relevant meetings repeatedly emphasized the policy direction and implementation details of "large - scale yield per unit area improvement". In 2025, the contribution rate of yield per unit area improvement to national grain production increase exceeded 90% [5][7] - Since 2019, the No. 1 Central Document has continuously proposed the policy goal of "expanding soybean planting, stabilizing production, and enhancing production capacity" for eight years. Due to limited arable land, increasing soybean yield per unit area is more important [6] 2. Current Situation and Reasons for China's Soybean Yield per Unit Area Current Situation - In 2025, China's soybean yield per unit area reached a record high of 271.8 jin per mu, with a year - on - year increase of about 1.9%. From 2016 to 2025, the compound annual growth rate was about 1.5% [2][8] - Xinjiang has the highest soybean yield per unit area, followed by the southern regions, while the northern regions, especially Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, have relatively low yields. In 2022, Xinjiang's soybean yield per unit area was about 403 jin per mu, higher than the global average [8][9] - Globally, in 2025/26, China's soybean yield per unit area was about 271 jin per mu, ranking 21st, far lower than the global average of 396 jin per mu. It is also lower than other major grain and oil crops such as corn, wheat, rapeseed, sunflower seeds, and peanuts [9][21] Reasons - Weak agricultural irrigation infrastructure, such as low irrigation coverage and a large proportion of medium - and low - yield fields, leads to poor soil water - storage and moisture - retention capacity [31] - Low - quality planting and field management technologies, including unbalanced fertilization, unreasonable planting density, and lagging pest control technologies, result in low production efficiency and resource waste [31] - There is a significant gap in mechanization and automation. For example, the seeding machine in Northeast China has a high missing - seeding rate, and the harvester has a high loss rate [31] - Slow technology promotion and a lagging effect on yield per unit area improvement are due to problems in the agricultural technology service system and small farmers' technology adoption [31] Reasons for Low Yields in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia - In Heilongjiang, small farmers have a low rate of proper planting technology application, and there are significant differences among different accumulated temperature zones and production subjects. There is a large yield gap between large - scale production and variety regional and production trials [32] - In Inner Mongolia, climate factors, such as uneven precipitation distribution, limited large - scale operation, and a large area of continuous cropping, restrict the increase in soybean yield per unit area [32][33] 3. Paths and Goals for China's Large - Scale Soybean Yield per Unit Area Improvement Paths - Promote high - yield, high - oil, and high - protein soybean varieties. Recommend representative varieties for different regions according to ecological conditions, planting systems, and market demands [34] - Support planting, field management, and harvesting technologies, such as dense planting and water - fertilizer regulation technology, formula fertilization technology, etc. [34] - Integrate and promote high - yield and efficient technical models, such as the "ridge - three - cultivation" technology in Northeast China, which can increase soybean production by over 10%, and the corn - soybean strip intercropping technology [34] Goals - Nationally, the average soybean yield per mu is targeted to reach 360 jin per mu in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 5.78% from 2026 to 2030 [3][35] - In Heilongjiang, the yield per mu targets are 266 jin in 2025 and 320 jin in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 3.77% from 2026 to 2030 [35] - In Inner Mongolia, the yield per mu targets are 270 jin in 2025 and 320 jin in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 3.46% from 2026 to 2030 [36]