股指关注两会预期，国债关注供给压力

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core Views - Stock Index: AI concerns are intensifying, precious metals are strengthening, and the stock index may fluctuate in the short term. It may show a slightly upward trend before the Two Sessions. Market sentiment towards the Two Sessions can be monitored [11]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is facing significant supply pressure after the holiday. If this pressure can be continuously absorbed, it may dialectically contribute to the continuation of the bond bull market since the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to supply pressure, and treasury bonds may fluctuate [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions - Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Trend Review: The four major stock indices fluctuated and faced pressure before the holiday [11]. - Technical Analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate [11]. - Strategy Outlook: Range - bound fluctuations [11]. - Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - Trend Review: Treasury bonds showed a slightly upward trend in the pre - holiday period but faced pressure on the last trading day before the holiday [13]. - Technical Analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [13]. - Strategy Outlook: Fluctuating operation [13]. Key Data Tracking - PMI - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%. Compared with December last year, it decreased significantly, but it was basically the same as in November last year. Production recovered mainly due to the improvement in the upstream industry, and export orders increased slightly, which may continuously drive the high - tech manufacturing industry. However, there is no obvious improvement in demand, and inventory tends to accumulate. High raw material prices may affect industrial enterprise profitability [19]. - CPI - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026: low base, narrowing decline in pork prices, impact of gold price fluctuations, and expansion of service consumption [22]. - Imports and Exports - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports unexpectedly rebounded to 6.6%, much higher than the Reuters consensus forecast of 3%. The month - on - month growth rate was 8.3%, higher than the average of the past ten years (5.9%), and the two - year compound growth rate also rebounded to 8.6%. The over - expected export growth in 2025 was due to two cognitive biases in the market. The "One Belt, One Road investment driving foreign trade" cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. - Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, with the decline expanding to - 13.1%, reaching the weakest level since September 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of revenue rebounded to - 0.3%. The decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant drop in profit margins [29]. - Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%, significantly lower than in 2024 and turning negative. It is estimated that the growth rate in December was - 16.0%, with the decline continuing to expand. In December, the growth rates of private investment and public investment were - 17.2% and - 14.3% respectively, both with expanding declines. Among the components, the growth rate of construction and installation projects dropped to - 28.0%, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses rebounded to 8.7% and 0.3% respectively [32]. - Social Retail - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and retail above the quota were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively, all slightly higher than in 2024. In December, the growth rate of social retail dropped to 0.9%, while the decline in retail above the quota narrowed to - 1.9%. The differentiation was due to weak consumption across channels and reduced drag from durable goods [35]. - Social Financing - On February 13, 2026, the central bank announced the financial statistics for January 2026. In January, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion, and the new RMB loans were 4.7 trillion. At the end of January, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 9.0%. The year - on - year increase in social financing was mainly supported by government bonds, undiscounted bills, and foreign currency loans. The year - on - year increase in long - term loans for both residents and enterprises decreased, while the year - on - year increase in short - term loans increased. M1 and M2 both rebounded year - on - year, and non - bank deposits continued to increase. The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies maintained sufficient liquidity [38].