GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-02-24 05:14Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival travel demand is robust, with significant growth in air passenger traffic and an increase in ticket prices. The trend is expected to continue positively after the holiday, supported by lower oil prices, leading to improved profitability for airlines compared to the previous year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Overall Travel Volume - As of February 22, 2026, the total social mobility volume increased by 6.0% year-on-year, with aviation matching this growth rate. The travel volume during the pre-holiday period (February 2-14) grew by 3.1%, while the mid-holiday period (February 15-23) saw a significant increase of 9.7% [5][6][7]. Air Passenger Traffic - The average daily passenger volume for civil aviation during the first 21 days of the Spring Festival was approximately 2.39 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0%. The growth rate aligns with expectations from the aviation authority. The limited increase in flight schedules has been noted, with a 5% increase in actual flights compared to the previous year [5][8]. Ticket Prices and Load Factors - The report estimates that the domestic load factor increased by approximately 1-2 percentage points year-on-year, with ticket prices (excluding fuel surcharges) rising by about 3-4%. The decrease in jet fuel prices by 13% year-on-year is expected to enhance the gross profit margins for airlines [5][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "super cycle" for the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand growth and a shift towards market-driven pricing. The expectation is that the supply-demand dynamics will improve in 2026, leading to upward trends in ticket prices and profitability. The report recommends an "Overweight" position on the aviation sector, highlighting specific airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines for investment [5][14].