关注关税政策，豆粕价格震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [5][9] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot market was stagnant during the Spring Festival. Although the domestic demand for U.S. soybean crushing was strong, the new U.S. tariff issue may affect U.S. soybean exports, causing a decline in U.S. soybean prices. The U.S. may increase soybean planting area in the new season. In South America, the Brazilian soybean harvest has slowed slightly, but the new - season harvest is still expected to be abundant, which will bring supply pressure to China. In China, post - holiday snow may affect transportation. For corn, after the Spring Festival, the supply may increase as farmers and traders start selling, but snow and potential "late spring cold" may affect transportation and wheat production. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises after the holiday may support corn prices, and the market will continue to fluctuate [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Prices - On February 13, the closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 65 yuan/ton or 2.38%. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2309 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton or 3.13%. In the spot market, the bean meal prices in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), 3070 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton), and 3060 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) respectively. The rapeseed meal price in Fujian was 2420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 International Situation - As of the second week of February 2026, Brazil had shipped 269.3 million tons of soybeans, compared with 642.8 million tons in February last year. The daily shipping volume was 26.9 million tons, a 16.22% decrease from 32.1 million tons in February last year. As of the week of February 18, 75% of the soybean crops were rated normal to good, up from 68% a week ago and the same as last year; 66% of the planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions, up from 56% a week ago and down from 70% last year [1] 3.1.3 Domestic Situation - In the 6th week of 2026, domestic oil mills received 26.9 ships of soybeans (about 174.85 million tons). The actual soybean crushing volume was 248.4 million tons, an increase of 18.79 million tons from the previous week and 11.24 million tons higher than the estimated volume. The actual operating rate was 68.33%. The soybean inventory of domestic oil mills decreased to 567.04 million tons, a decrease of 68.46 million tons or 10.77% from the previous week, and an increase of 1.01 million tons or 0.18% year - on - year. The bean meal inventory increased to 99.21 million tons, an increase of 6.17 million tons or 6.63% from the previous week, and an increase of 56.91 million tons or 134.54% year - on - year. In the week before February 12, the total bean meal transaction volume was 35.25 million tons, a decrease of 69.58 million tons from the previous week. The daily average transaction volume was 7.05 million tons, a decrease of 13.92 million tons or 66.71% from the previous week. The total bean meal pick - up volume was 85.53 million tons, an increase of 14.44 million tons from the previous week. The daily average pick - up volume was 17.11 million tons, a decrease of 2.89 million tons or 14.44% from the previous week [2] 3.1.4 Rapeseed Meal Supply - As of February 6, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 1 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from the previous period. The rapeseed oil output was 0.41 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons. The rapeseed meal output was 0.59 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons. The rapeseed oil pick - up volume was 0.21 million tons, an increase of 0.13 million tons. The rapeseed meal pick - up volume was 0.39 million tons, an increase of 0.37 million tons [3] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - On February 13, the closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The closing price of the starch 2605 contract was 2638 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 44 yuan/ton or 1.7%. In the spot market, the corn price at Bayuquan Port was 2340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The corn starch price in Jilin was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [5] 3.2.2 Corn Supply - In December 2025, the corn import volume was 80 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.86% and a year - on - year increase of 133.10%. The total corn import volume from January to December was 265 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.60%. From February 5 to February 11, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in China consumed 130.41 million tons of corn, a decrease of 5.31 million tons from the previous week. As of February 12, the average inventory of feed enterprises across the country was 33.02 days, an increase of 0.43 days or 1.32% from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 9.66%. The total corn inventory of 96 major deep - processing enterprises was 543.8 million tons, an increase of 6.07% from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 22.04% [6] 3.2.3 Corn Starch Supply - Corn starch processing enterprises consumed 43.52 million tons of corn, a decrease of 1.64 million tons from the previous week. Starch sugar enterprises consumed 25.90 million tons of corn, a decrease of 1.21 million tons from the previous week. The weekly national corn starch output was 30.47 million tons, a decrease of 1.15 million tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 55.68%, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous week. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises across the country was 102.5 million tons, an increase of 3.00 million tons or 3.02% from the previous week, a monthly decrease of 0.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.90%. Before the holiday, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Shandong, it was - 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Heilongjiang, it was - 112 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from the previous week [7] 3.2.4 International and Domestic Market Analysis - In the international market, the net export sales of U.S. corn in the 2025/2026 season were 147 million tons, a decrease of 29% from the previous week and a decrease of 33% from the average of the previous four weeks. The corn export shipment was 162.7 million tons, an increase of 8% from the previous week and an increase of 13% from the average of the previous four weeks. As of the second week of February 2026, Brazil had shipped 99.27 million tons of corn, compared with 141.95 million tons in February last year. The daily shipping volume was 9.93 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39.87%. In the domestic market, the corn purchase and sales were basically stagnant during the Spring Festival. After the holiday, as the temperature rises, farmers and traders are expected to start selling. However, snow after the holiday may affect transportation, and "late spring cold" may affect wheat production. The deep - processing and feed enterprises have replenishment needs after the holiday, which may support corn prices. The overall corn market supply is not loose, but the arrival of imported and substitute grains after the holiday will provide some supplements, and the corn price will continue to fluctuate [7][8]