天然橡胶周度策略报告-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the opening price of industrial products is likely to be higher. It is recommended to temporarily observe rubber unilaterally, and avoid chasing high prices due to the fluctuating macro - sentiment. For the RU main contract, the support level is between 15,700 - 15,800, and the pressure level is between 16,100 - 16,400. For the NR main contract, the support level is between 12,800 - 13,000, and the pressure level is between 13,420 - 13,800 [3]. - The rubber is recommended to be bought on dips. The domestic spot inventory is continuously accumulating slightly, overseas supply has no obvious fluctuations, the spot price is firm, and the macro - sentiment boosts the commodity market. It is expected to fluctuate and rise. The 20 - number rubber is also recommended to be bought on dips. The dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory inflection point, the Thai glue price is firm, the output in the fourth quarter has declined, and there is still support below. It is expected to rebound from the bottom [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - Rubber: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. The supporting logic is that the domestic spot inventory is continuously accumulating slightly, overseas supply has no obvious fluctuations, the spot price is firm, and the macro - sentiment boosts the commodity market. The support range is 15,500 - 15,800, the pressure range is 16,300 - 16,500, and the market is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - 20 - number rubber: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. The supporting logic is that the dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory inflection point, the Thai glue price is firm, the output in the fourth quarter has declined, and there is still support below. The support range is 12,700 - 12,800, the pressure range is 13,420 - 13,805, and the market is expected to rebound from the bottom [9]. Second Part: Futures Market Review 1. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Daily Change Value | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber Main Contract | 16,315 | - 1.42 | - 235 | 165,470 | 140,235 | | 20 - number Rubber Main Contract | 13,180 | - 1.90 | - 255 | 47,212 | 47,785 | | Singapore TSR20 Main Contract | 193 | 0.42 | 1 | 10 | 24,540 | [9] 2. Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - number rubber is 50,803, with a year - on - year change of - 20.13%. The warehouse receipt has rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's inventory accumulation expectation has resurfaced. - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 112,570, with a year - on - year change of - 38.86%. The warehouse receipt was significantly cancelled again today, the futures inventory has dropped sharply year - on - year, the delivery risk of futures contracts has increased, which supports the RU futures price [13]. Third Part: Spot Market Trends | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Natural Rubber (Yuan/ton) | 16,283 | - 109 | - 853 | | Yunnan Glue (Yuan/ton) | 14,200 | 0 | - 1,800 | | Thai Hat Yai Glue (Thai Baht/kg) | 62 | 0 | - 4 | | Thai Hat Yai Cup Rubber (Thai Baht/kg) | 55 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai 20 Standard Rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area (US dollars/ton) | 1,980 | 0 | - 170 | [18] Fourth Part: Basis and Spread Situation | Futures | Spread Type | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU Main Contract Basis | Basis | - 32 | 10 | 437 | | NR Main Contract Basis | Basis | 1,820 | 90 | 115 | | Thai Mixed - RU | Non - standard Basis | - 985 | - 55 | 250 | | SVR3L - RU | Non - standard Basis | 235 | - 100 | 570 | | RU - NR | Cross - variety Spread | 3,135 | 0 | 540 | | Whole Milk - Thai Mixed | Light - and Dark - colored Rubber Spread | 720 | 55 | - 30 | [23] Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 5 - 9 | 120 | 0 | 265 | Range - bound | Observe | | 20 - number Rubber | 3 - 4 | - 60 | 0 | - 295 | Range - bound | Observe | [25] Sixth Part: Industrial Supply, Demand and Inventory Situation There is no specific text description in the report, but there are relevant figures such as the overall supply - demand situation of ANRPC member countries, the year - on - year change of the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber, the year - on - year change of China's automobile production, the operating rates of domestic semi - steel tires and all - steel tires, the inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires, and the social inventory of Chinese natural rubber [29]. Seventh Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description in the report, but there are relevant figures such as the trading volume and open interest of natural rubber options, the put - call ratio of natural rubber options, the 60 - day historical volatility of rubber options, and the weighted implied volatility of rubber options [33].