行业点评报告:楼市延续筑底行情,政策宽松下布局时点已至
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-02-24 05:44

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show weak performance, with both supply and demand sides under pressure. The new housing market is particularly weak during the Spring Festival period, while the second-hand housing market remains relatively stable. The land market is also experiencing a contraction in supply and demand, leading to a cautious market sentiment [8][41][44] Summary by Sections Spring Festival Market Transaction Volume - In the week before the Spring Festival, the total transaction volume of new homes in 40 cities was 133.68 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31.5%. The week from the Spring Festival to the sixth day saw a transaction volume of 5.73 million square meters, down 20.4% year-on-year. The overall performance of the new housing market remains weak, with poor supply and demand [5][14][15] Second-hand Housing Prices - Since February 2026, second-hand housing prices have gradually stabilized. The Iceberg Index for 100 cities reached a low point of 10,025 yuan per square meter on February 8, 2026, and has rebounded to 10,034 yuan per square meter. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have seen slight rebounds of 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.3% from their lows, respectively. Although the rebound is modest, it is significant given the lack of major real estate stimulus or monetary policy changes [6][22][27] Land Market - The land market has shown a significant cooling trend since the beginning of 2026, with both supply and demand weakening. In January 2026, the total land area launched across all types was 141 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 16%. The total transaction value of land in January was 121.5 billion yuan, down 39% year-on-year, with residential land transaction value dropping 47% [7][41][43][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the real estate sector is at a historical low in terms of allocation. Recommended stocks include strong credit real estate companies that are adept at capturing improvement-driven customer demand, such as Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, and China Overseas Development. Additionally, companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8][46]

行业点评报告:楼市延续筑底行情,政策宽松下布局时点已至 - Reportify