IEEPA关税失效引发抢出口预期，碳酸锂开盘大涨

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong, with supply and demand in a tight - balance. After the Spring Festival, the capital sentiment is repaired, and the demand peak season is approaching. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to adopt a buy - on - dip strategy [2]. - Medium - term: Attention should be paid to the resumption and commissioning rhythm of domestic and foreign mines. A rapid release of supply may put pressure on prices, and it is expected to fluctuate [2]. - Long - term: After the production capacity reaches its peak, the continued growth of demand may drive the price to strengthen further, and it should still be treated with a bullish - fluctuation mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Quantity and Price Dynamics and Reasons - The opening price of lithium carbonate futures increased with increased positions, and the main contract once rose by more than 8%. The price increase is mainly due to the expected rush of exports caused by the US Supreme Court ruling that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal. After the ruling, Trump announced a new 10% global tariff for 150 days, with an overall 10% reduction compared to before, which may stimulate export demand. Additionally, the current supply - demand fundamentals are strong, the market expects the tight - balance situation to continue after the Spring Festival, and the capital sentiment has been repaired during the Spring Festival [2]. Fundamental Situation - From a fundamental perspective, the current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, and capital factors have a significant impact on prices. Supply remained relatively strong from January to February. Although some enterprises carried out maintenance and production cuts, the overall supply was at a high level. At the same time, demand was good, and downstream enterprises actively stocked up after the price correction. It is expected that supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance from January to February, and social inventories have decreased. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand have recovered, and the situation of strong supply and demand continues. The repair of capital sentiment also provides upward momentum [2].