黄金、白银期货品种周报-20260224

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report period: February 24 - 27, 2026 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be near the end of the trend [7] - Trend judgment logic: Gold prices are in high - level volatility. Geopolitical risks (Middle East situation) and central bank gold purchases form a solid bottom. On February 11, the gold price was pushed up to $5077. Then, lower - than - expected US CPI data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation but also led to deeper market concerns about stagflation. Coupled with technical profit - taking, the gold price deeply corrected to $4861 on the 17th. On the 20th, the US Supreme Court's ruling caused the US dollar index to fall, and with continuous inflows into ETFs, the gold price recovered to $5053. In the short term, the game between high real interest rates and interest - rate cut expectations causes disturbances, while the re - evaluation of the US dollar's credit and global "de - dollarization" provide core support in the medium and long term [7] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The Shanghai Gold contract 2604 fluctuated sharply at a short - term high. The upper pressure was 1150 - 1200 yuan/gram, and the lower support was 1000 - 1050 yuan/gram. With the Spring Festival approaching, it was recommended to wait and see [10] - This week's strategy: The Shanghai Gold contract 2604 will be in high - level oscillation. The upper pressure is 1200 - 1220 yuan/gram, and the lower support is 1080 - 1100 yuan/gram. It is recommended to go long on dips [11] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23][25][27] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel and may be near the end of the trend [31] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the silver price showed a "first - down - then - up" trend. The adjustment was mainly due to macro - policy suppression and capital withdrawal. Strong US employment data strengthened the hawkish expectation, and the rising US dollar index directly suppressed the financial attribute. At the same time, the previous profit - taking and the CME's increase in margin triggered a stampede effect. However, industrial demand and inventory provided solid support. The surge in photovoltaic module exports drove silver demand, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 3.6% to a new low, limiting the downward price space. Subsequently, geopolitical risks fluctuated, boosting the price to stabilize and rebound. In the future, it awaits PCE data guidance. In the medium and long term, the global supply - demand gap for the sixth consecutive year and the weakening of the US dollar's credit will support the price center to move up, and the volatility elasticity is expected to be higher than that of gold [33] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [34] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2604 fluctuated significantly at a high level. The upper pressure was 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support was 17,000 - 19,000 yuan/kg. With the Spring Festival approaching, it was recommended to wait and see [37] - This week's strategy: The silver contract 2604 will be in high - level oscillation. The upper pressure is 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support is 17,000 - 19,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to go long on dips [38] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][48][50]