城投行业2026年信用风险展望：城投企业加速出清，债务化解与产业转型双轨并行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - 2026 will be a crucial year for urban investment enterprises, featuring accelerated transformation, intensified credit differentiation, and market-oriented transformation. In the short term, the financing environment will remain tight overall, with strict control over new financing. Funds will flow more significantly to high-quality regions and platforms with strong fiscal strength and clear transformation plans, leading to unprecedentedly intensified credit differentiation in the industry. In the medium to long term, debt resolution and industrial transformation will be the main themes, and the "government credit endorsement" will gradually shift to "market-oriented credit" [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Industry Supply Capacity Analysis - In 2025, the debt resolution work continued the previous strict tone, practical measures, and strong characteristics. The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposed to promote the orderly resolution of risks such as local government debts, upgrading the positioning of local government debt issues from "local risk control" to a "systematic project related to the overall situation." Urban investment enterprises need to accelerate their transformation [2] - Throughout 2025, various policies were introduced to support debt resolution for urban investment enterprises, including financial support, bond issuance, and real - estate market stabilization. At the same time, regulatory requirements for local government financing platforms were strengthened, forcing them to rectify and adapt to financing requirements [3][4][6] II. Industry Demand Matching Ability Analysis 2.1 Regional Economic Environment - In 2025, China's economy ran smoothly, achieving the GDP growth target of 5.0%. However, the role of investment in driving the economy weakened, and real - estate development investment continued to decline. There were significant differences in general public budget revenue and local government debt levels among provinces [8][9][10] - In 2026, with a moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy, China's local government debt balance is expected to continue to grow rapidly. High - tech manufacturing may maintain high - speed development, but attention should be paid to the incubation and output of emerging industries and their actual promotion of the economy [8][16] 2.2 Urban Investment Debt Pressure - As of January 13, 2026, the scale of urban investment bonds due before the end of 2026 is relatively large, accounting for 24.30% of the outstanding urban investment bonds. Among them, AA+ urban investment enterprises account for the largest proportion. In key provinces, Chongqing and Tianjin face relatively high pressure of concentrated bond maturities within the year, and attention should be paid to bond refinancing [17][19][21] III. Industry's Industrial Chain Analysis 3.1 Source of Funds Analysis - Under the background of strict policy control over the increment of bonds and non - standard financing, the bank borrowings of urban investment companies increased. In the process of risk prevention and debt resolution, they became more dependent on indirect financing [26] 3.2 Bond Issuance Situation - In 2025, the bond issuance volume of urban investment enterprises decreased year - on - year, and the net repayment scale expanded. The issuance of urban investment bonds was still concentrated in the eastern provinces with strong economic and fiscal strength, and high - level urban investment entities were still the main force in bond issuance. The new bond varieties were mainly corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and short - term financing bills. The overall bond financing cost decreased, and the issuance term tended to be medium - to long - term. It is expected that in 2026, the supply of urban investment bonds may further shrink [29][30][40] IV. Industry Innovation Ability Analysis - Under the background of policy adjustment and stricter supervision, the declaration of urban investment enterprises as market - oriented business entities and the "exit from the platform" accelerated. The transformation of urban investment and the establishment of related industrial companies accelerated [41][42][47] - Driven by policy guidance and regional economic transformation and upgrading needs, the main business of urban investment platforms has changed, with the growth of traditional infrastructure business slowing down, and urban operation and industrial investment becoming new growth points [48][49] V. Industry Credit Rating Situation Analysis 5.1 Rating Adjustment - In 2025, the credit ratings or outlooks of 46 urban investment enterprises were adjusted, including 41 upgrades and 5 downgrades. The number of upgrades increased year - on - year, and the number of downgrades decreased significantly. The credit differentiation of urban investment enterprises further intensified [50] - Rating upgrades were mainly concentrated in regions with strong economic and fiscal strength such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Guangdong, while rating downgrades or negative - outlook entities were concentrated in regions with high debt resolution difficulties such as Guizhou [50][51][53] 5.2 Non - Standard Risk Events - In 2025, non - standard risk events of urban investment mainly occurred in regions with weak local economic and fiscal strength, high debt pressure, or poor debt management ability. The number of non - standard risk events involving high - rating urban investment entities decreased year - on - year. Attention should still be paid to the progress of non - standard default event disposal and regional debt risk mitigation [55][56][58] VI. Industry Development Outlook - In 2026, urban investment enterprises will face accelerated transformation, intensified credit differentiation, and market - oriented transformation. The regulatory focus will gradually shift to the management and resolution of existing operating debts. The financing environment will remain tight, and funds will flow to high - quality regions and platforms [64] - The merger and integration of urban investment enterprises will accelerate, and the number of platforms within regions will significantly decrease. The main transformation paths include becoming urban comprehensive operators or state - owned industrial investment entities. The "government credit endorsement" will gradually shift to "market - oriented credit" [64][65]