2026年1月信用利差月报：配置盘支撑下，1月信用利差全线收窄-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In January 2026, the bond market showed a relatively strong and volatile trend. Driven by factors such as the coupon advantage of credit bonds over interest - rate bonds, increased credit - bond allocation demand from banks and insurance companies during the "good start" period, and the investment preference shift of amortized bond funds during their concentrated opening periods, credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds, and credit spreads narrowed across the board. Currently, the spreads of short - duration credit bonds have generally been compressed to historical lows, while some medium - and long - duration varieties still have certain spread spaces. Considering the allocation demand of amortized bond funds for medium - and high - grade credit bonds, it is advisable to moderately extend the duration and use carry trade and leverage on 3 - 5 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Various Credit Bond Spread Performances - In January 2026, the bond market was volatile. At the beginning to the middle of the month, the strong performance of the stock and commodity markets suppressed the bond market. In the second half of the month, due to factors such as profit - taking, an increase in margin requirements for financing, the mild implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations, interest - rate cuts by the central bank's structural monetary policy tools, and strong buying by institutional investors, the bond market recovered. Credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds, and credit spreads narrowed across the board [3]. - By the end of January, the spreads of most credit - bond varieties narrowed compared to the end of the previous month. Only the spreads of 3 - year AAA - grade non - public industrial bonds, 5 - year medium - and high - grade non - public urban investment bonds, and 5 - year AA + and AA - grade securities company subordinated bonds widened slightly. The spreads of Tier 2 capital bonds and short - and medium - duration low - grade non - financial credit bonds compressed significantly [3]. - In terms of historical quantiles, at the end of January, the historical quantiles of short - duration credit spreads were generally around 5%. The historical quantiles of 3 - year non - public industrial bonds, perpetual industrial bonds, non - public urban investment bonds, bank Tier 2 capital bonds, and insurance company capital - supplementary bonds were around 20%. The historical quantiles of 5 - year AA - grade varieties, medium - and high - grade non - public urban investment bonds, and financial bonds were relatively high, around 25% [3]. - At the end of January, the grade spreads of most credit bonds of various tenors narrowed. Only the grade spreads of short - duration financial bonds and some tenors of industrial bonds widened slightly. The 5 - year (AA +) - AAA and AA - AAA grade spreads were relatively high, mostly above the 40% historical quantile. The 1 - year and 3 - year non - public industrial bonds and the (AA +) - AAA grade spreads of bank perpetual bonds were at relatively high historical quantiles, all above 50%, with the 1 - year bank perpetual bond (AA +) - AAA grade spread reaching 87.9% [6]. - Supported by the "good start" of banks and insurance companies and the allocation demand for medium - and long - duration credit bonds from amortized - cost bond funds during their concentrated opening periods, the term spreads of credit bonds of all grades generally narrowed at the end of January compared to the end of the previous month. However, attention should be paid to the relatively large widening of the 5Y - 1Y spread of medium - and high - grade non - public urban investment bonds. In terms of historical quantiles, at the end of January, the term spreads of non - public urban investment bonds rated AA and above and the 3Y - 1Y spread of non - public industrial bonds were relatively high, all above 55%. The term spreads of public industrial bonds, public, and perpetual urban investment bonds were around the 40% historical quantile. The term spreads of financial bonds were relatively high, with the term spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of all grades generally around the 50% historical quantile, the term spreads of insurance company capital - supplementary bonds of all grades above 60%, and the 5Y - 1Y spread of AAA - grade securities company subordinated bonds reaching 89% [8]. 3.2 Industrial Bond Spreads 3.2.1 Industry - wide Spreads - In January, the credit spreads of AAA - grade industrial bonds generally narrowed. Only the spreads of public and private bonds in the real - estate industry and private bonds in the steel industry widened. Among public bonds, at the end of January, the spreads of the social - service, real - estate, and power - equipment industries were above 50bps. Compared with the end of December, only the spread of the real - estate industry widened by 6.24bps, while the spreads of other industries narrowed, with the social - service industry having the largest narrowing amplitude of 7.20bps. Among private bonds, at the end of January, the spreads of the real - estate, financial - holding, building - materials, and steel industries were above 70bps. Only the spreads of the real - estate and steel industries widened by 3.06bps and 0.89bps respectively compared to the end of the previous month. The spreads of the food - and - beverage and coal industries both narrowed by more than 9bps compared to the end of the previous month [11]. 3.2.2 Key Industry Observations - At the end of January, the credit spreads of 3 - year medium - and high - grade public bonds in key industries (steel, coal, power, and construction engineering) generally narrowed compared to the end of the previous month. Only the AA + - grade spread in the steel industry widened slightly by 0.2bps. Among major bond - issuing enterprises, in the steel industry, the spreads of most enterprises narrowed, with only the spread of China Baowu widening by 5.86bps. In the coal industry, the spreads of key enterprises generally narrowed, with the spread of State Energy Investment remaining basically the same as at the end of the previous month, and the spreads of Jincheng State - owned Investment and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry narrowing by 9bps and 8bps respectively. Affected by the bond extension event of Vanke, the spreads of outstanding bonds of most entities in the real - estate industry widened, with only Beijing Urban Construction, CCCC Group, Nanjing Anju Construction, and Shenzhen Metro narrowing slightly, with the narrowing amplitude within 5bps [14]. 3.3 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - In January, the yields of urban investment bonds of major ratings and tenors declined across the board, and the credit spreads of medium - and long - duration low - grade urban investment bonds declined more significantly. Specifically, at the end of January, the credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, AA +, AA, and AA - grade urban investment bonds were 16.21bps, 20.21bps, 26.61bps, and 59.61bps respectively, narrowing by 1.94bps, 3.94bps, 5.94bps, and 11.94bps respectively compared to the end of the previous month. The spreads of 5 - year AAA, AA +, AA, and AA - grade urban investment bonds narrowed by 2.30bps, 5.80bps, 9.30bp, and 7.30bps respectively compared to the end of the previous month [30]. - Regionally, in January, the credit spreads of public and private urban investment bonds in all provinces narrowed across the board. Among public bonds, at the end of January, the spreads of Inner Mongolia and Guizhou exceeded 100bps, and the spreads of Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Tianjin, Ningxia, and Yunnan narrowed by more than 10bps compared to the end of the previous month. Among private bonds, at the end of January, the spreads of Guizhou, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Guangxi exceeded 120bps, and the spreads of Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Shaanxi, and Tianjin narrowed by more than 11bps [33][34]. 3.4 Financial Bond Spreads 3.4.1 Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - In January, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds narrowed across the board. At the end of January, the credit spreads of 3 - year AAA -, AA +, AA, and AA - grade bank Tier 2 capital bonds narrowed by 5.30bps, 7.32bps, 8.32bps, and 6.32bps respectively compared to the end of the previous month; the spreads of 3 - year AAA -, AA +, AA, and AA - grade bank perpetual bonds narrowed by 9.36bps, 9.36bps, 9.36bps, and 9.326bps respectively. The yield curve flattened and declined, and the term spreads narrowed across the board. The 3Y - 1Y and 5Y - 1Y spreads of AAA - grade bank Tier 2 capital bonds narrowed by 1.37bps and 4.62bps respectively; the 3Y - 1Y and 5Y - 1Y spreads of AAA - grade bank perpetual bonds narrowed by 5.11bps and 0.9bps respectively. The grade spreads of bank Tier 2 capital bonds narrowed across the board, while the grade spreads of bank perpetual bonds remained the same as the previous month [36]. 3.4.2 Securities Subordinated Bonds/Insurance Company Capital - Supplementary Bonds - At the end of January, the credit spreads of securities company subordinated bonds and insurance company capital - supplementary bonds both narrowed compared to the end of the previous month. Specifically, at the end of January, the credit spreads of 3 - year AA + and AA - grade securities company subordinated bonds declined by 13.66bps and 10.66bps respectively to 25.99bps and 35.99bps; the credit spreads of 3 - year AA + and AA - grade insurance company capital - supplementary bonds declined by 5.73bps and 5.73bps respectively to 29.60bps and 35.60bps [45].