区域宏观经济观察及信用债分析系列专题之二：地方经济发展有什么抓手

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, national ministries and commissions offer policy and financial support for local economic development, aiming to encourage local governments to implement projects related to "investment in things and people" and promote the development of industrial clusters [5]. - The macro - economic indicators show a fluctuating trend. In 2025, China achieved the GDP growth target of 5%. Despite the "reciprocal tariff" measures from the US, China's import and export volume continued to grow, with exports increasing by 6.1% for the whole year and 5.2% in December [5]. - Fiscal expenditure expansion has multiple sources, including the 2026 fiscal deficit, central budget - inner investment funds, super - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and transfer payments [5]. - Cultivating emerging industries may be a key way for local governments to expand effective investment. Local governments can develop high - tech and equipment manufacturing industries according to local conditions, and cultivate more "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" enterprises [5]. - Encouraging local governments to cooperate with state - owned central enterprises can bring greater help to local economies. Central enterprises have strategic advantages in many fields, and cooperation can have a multiplier effect [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Local Economic Development: What Are the Levers? - Macro - economic Performance in 2025 - GDP reached 1,401,879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year - on - year. The growth rates in different quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [8]. - The added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.9% year - on - year. The added value of equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing increased by 9.2% and 9.4% respectively, faster than the overall industrial growth [9]. - The added value of the service industry increased by 5.4% year - on - year. Some sub - sectors such as information transmission, software and information technology services had relatively high growth rates [10]. - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 501,202 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year - on - year. Rural consumer goods retail sales grew faster than urban ones [11]. - The total fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% [11]. - The total volume of goods import and export reached 454,687 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% year - on - year. Exports increased by 6.1%, and imports increased by 0.5% [12]. - Policy Support in 2026 - The central bank, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission continue to strengthen policy support and provide financial cooperation to encourage local governments to implement projects and promote the development of industrial clusters [5]. - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, including increasing the total amount of fiscal expenditure, optimizing the structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing internal impetus [17]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will focus on "three坚持" to promote economic development, including expanding domestic demand, developing the real economy, and promoting the construction of a unified national market [26]. - Development of Emerging Industries - High - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing continue to lead the way. High - tech manufacturing PMI remained at a relatively high level, and equipment manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range [28]. - Local governments can cultivate "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" enterprises in emerging and future industries, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has put forward development ideas for emerging industries, future industries, and new materials industries [30]. - Cooperation between Local Governments and Central Enterprises - Central enterprises have made significant investments in strategic emerging industries in 2025, with a high R & D investment intensity and a large number of R & D personnel and platforms [35]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has planned the development of emerging industries, including deepening industrial ecosystem cooperation, promoting the layout of emerging industries, and strengthening system empowerment and coordinated development [35]. 3.2 Investment Strategy - Focus on Economically Strong Provinces - Provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, Shanghai, and Beijing have relatively good development momentum and debt management. Their provincial, prefecture - level, and district - county - level platforms are relatively stable, and the bond duration can be appropriately extended to 5 years [51]. - Focus on Regions with Debt - Resolution Policies - Regions such as Chongqing, Tianjin, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Guizhou, and Yunnan, where there are significant debt - resolution policies or actual capital inflows, can be considered for short - term investments (duration within 3 years) [51]. - Focus on Prefecture - level Cities with Strong Industrial Bases - Prefecture - level cities with strong industrial bases and financial support, such as those in Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Guangxi, Shanxi, and Jiangxi, can be considered for investments with a duration of 3 - 5 years [53].