1月利率运行分析与展望：结构性降息落地，10年期国债阶段性高点或在1.9%左右

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - year Treasury bond will continue to maintain a low - interest - rate, narrow - range, and high - volatility state, with a potential stage high of around 1.9%. After the Spring Festival, the market may start to speculate on macro - policy expectations, economic fundamentals, and risk preferences, which will amplify market fluctuations [4]. - The macro - economy in early 2026 continues to recover weakly, and the yield central tendency is difficult to rise significantly. The credit "good start" may be lackluster, and the impact on bond market expectations is controllable. There may be a stage upward trend at some points [4][16]. - Monetary policy will continue a moderately loose tone, and the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut in the short term is low. The central bank may focus more on structural policy tools [4][20]. - Liquidity is likely to remain balanced and slightly loose, and its impact on yield fluctuations is controllable. The central bank will ensure smooth cross - festival funds [4][21]. - Risk appetite has decreased, and the suppression of the bond market has weakened. Although the investment cost - performance of bonds compared to stocks is not prominent, the gap between stock and bond yields has converged to some extent [4][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1 - month Hot - spot Review - On January 15, the central bank announced and launched eight structural monetary and financial policy measures, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, which helps banks increase credit to key areas and weak links, but has a limited impact on reducing bank funding costs. As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of the central bank's structural monetary policy tools was 5.9 trillion yuan. A full 25 - BP interest rate cut is expected to reduce bank funding costs by about 15 billion yuan per year, which is only about 0.4 basis points compared to the total liabilities of domestic commercial banks at the end of 2025 [5]. - The structural monetary policy tools have been expanded and increased in volume, with an additional 50 billion yuan in re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses, 40 billion yuan in re - loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, and a new 1 - trillion - yuan re - loan for private enterprises. However, the policy effect transmission is restricted, and the actual effectiveness needs further release [5]. - The re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses and the rediscount quota are combined for use, and the risk - sharing tools for scientific and technological innovation and private enterprise bonds are merged [5]. - The scope of support for structural monetary policy tools is broadened, including high - R & D private SMEs in the support area of re - loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, and extending the coverage of carbon - emission reduction, service - consumption, and pension re - loans, which helps economic structural transformation and upgrading [5]. 3.2 1 - month Interest Rate Operation Review 3.2.1 Funds and Liquidity Monitoring - In January, the central bank increased the net investment of funds in the open market, with a net investment of 1.0678 trillion yuan, mainly in medium - and long - term funds. The central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 3.22 billion yuan in pledged reverse repurchases, and increased the net investment of 30 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases and 70 billion yuan in MLF. The central bank also net - bought 10 billion yuan of Treasury bonds in the open market, with the highest value since October last year [8]. - Thanks to the large - scale investment of funds by the central bank, the fund interest rates were relatively stable, and the central tendency rose slightly. DR001 and R001 basically ran smoothly within 1.4% and 1.5%, with central tendencies of 1.34% and 1.41% respectively, up 5.54BP and 4.68BP from the previous month. The central tendency of the spread between DR007 and R007 narrowed by 4BP from the previous month, and the non - bank fund pressure was not large [9]. 3.2.2 Interest - rate Bond Yield Review - In January, the long - and short - end yields of interest - rate bonds were differentiated, and those above 5Y generally declined. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, it rose to 1.9% due to the strengthening of the equity market. After reaching the stage high, the market allocation willingness increased, and the bond market yield entered the downward stage. At the end of the month, it closed at 1.81%, down 3.61BP from the end of the previous month, but the central tendency rose slightly by 0.28BP to 1.85% [11]. - The term spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, and on January 30, it was 51.13BP, basically the same as at the end of the previous month. The trading volume of interest - rate bonds in January increased by 3.34% to 22.71 trillion yuan compared to the previous month, among which the trading volumes of Treasury bonds and local bonds decreased by 0.97% and 25.64% to 9.46 trillion yuan and 1.47 trillion yuan respectively, while the trading volume of policy - financial bonds increased by 12.79% to 11.77 trillion yuan [11]. 3.3 Outlook 3.3.1 The macro - economy in early 2026 continues to recover weakly, and the yield central tendency is difficult to rise significantly - Affected by factors such as the early Spring Festival holiday, cold snap, and overdraft effect, the manufacturing PMI in January fell below the boom - bust line again. The CPI decreased marginally year - on - year due to the Spring Festival misalignment, and the PPI increased positively for four consecutive months, but the upstream - downstream differentiation still existed. The macro - economy continued to recover weakly, and the credit "good start" might be lackluster. There may be a stage upward trend at some points [16]. 3.3.2 Monetary policy will continue a moderately loose tone, and the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut in the short term is low - The central bank's vice - governor said in January that there is still room for a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in 2026. The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is in line with the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference. The central bank may focus more on structural policy tools, and the impact of monetary policy on yield in the short term may be limited [20]. 3.3.3 Liquidity is likely to remain balanced and slightly loose, and its impact on yield fluctuations is controllable - Affected by factors such as Spring Festival cash withdrawals, tax payments, and concentrated government bond issuances, the fund gap pressure in February is large. The central bank is expected to increase fund investment at special times. Historically, the central bank has generally provided strong liquidity support during the Spring Festival. In the short term, liquidity will remain balanced and slightly loose, and the fund interest rate will generally fluctuate around the policy interest rate [21]. 3.3.4 Risk appetite has decreased, and the suppression of the bond market has weakened - According to the central bank's fourth - quarter 2025 urban depositor survey, the proportion of residents inclined to "more savings" reached 62.9%, maintaining a high level. The proportion of residents inclined to "more investment" decreased. The outflow of residents' deposits to the stock market is moderate, and it is difficult to have a large - scale deposit transfer in the short term. Although the investment cost - performance of bonds compared to stocks is not prominent, the gap between stock and bond yields has converged to some extent, and the suppression of the bond market has weakened [25].