Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-02-24 06:59Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic improvement and tariff adjustments, with Brent oil prices expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [3][4]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the export chain due to the reduction of tariffs on Chinese products, which is expected to boost the chemical sector's performance [3][4]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with demand expected to rise as downstream operations resume post-holiday [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Macro Economic Analysis - Oil supply is constrained due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [3][4]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a long-term bottom, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates its export facility construction [3][4]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant advancements in robotics showcased during the Spring Festival, indicating a key commercialization year for robotics in 2026, with related materials expected to see increased demand [3][4]. - The chemical sector is advised to focus on investment opportunities in the textile chain, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate chains, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [3][4]. Price Trends - Recent data shows a decrease in oil prices and an increase in coal prices, with the overall industrial PPI showing a slight decline year-on-year but an increase month-on-month [6][9]. - Specific chemical product prices, such as PTA and MEG, have shown mixed trends, with PTA prices slightly increasing while MEG prices have decreased [9][10]. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the agricultural chemicals and chemical fertilizer sectors, indicating growth in net profits and maintaining a positive outlook for several firms [15].