Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-02-24 08:55Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International market: The latest USDA weekly export data shows that the net signing volume of U.S. 2025/26 upland cotton in the week ending February 12th increased by 102% week - on - week, hitting a new high for the year. The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum predicts that the global cotton production in 2026/27 will decrease by 3.2% year - on - year, consumption will increase by 1.2%, and ending stocks will decrease by 5.2%, supporting U.S. cotton prices. However, the change in U.S. tariff policies increases macro uncertainties and intensifies market volatility [2]. - Domestic market: On the supply side, domestic commercial inventories are in the destocking phase, with post - holiday restocking intentions, but port inventories are still accumulating and December cotton imports will arrive successively. On the consumption side, textile enterprises had sufficient pre - holiday orders and the market anticipates the traditional post - holiday peak season. Overall, as U.S. cotton prices rise and a decrease in Xinjiang's cotton planting area is expected, the domestic cotton market is boosted, and cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro news [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 15,285, up 545; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 21,270, up 740 [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 132,402, down 19,350; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 606, up 285 [2]. - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 759,377, up 92,446; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 11,879, up 1,232 [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 11,013, up 12; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 0, unchanged [2]. - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 16,070, down 18; China Yarn Price Index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 21,535, up 15 [2]. Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,686, up 170; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 21,182, up 124 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding duty (daily, yuan/ton): 13,787; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton combed yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 22,662, up 44 [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,465, up 33; industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 86.1, up 1.3 [2]. - Cotton import volume: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 18, up 6; cotton yarn import volume: monthly value (monthly, tons): 170,000, up 20,000 [2]. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 2,283, up 50; commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 578.87, up 0.4 [2]. Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 21.71, down 3.41; inventory days of grey cloth (monthly, days): 33.13, down 0.63 [2]. - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 30.1, up 2; yarn output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 213.2, up 9.3 [2]. - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 13,412,412, up 1,818,726; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 12,579,603, up 303,870 [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options on cotton (%): 13.58, down 0.61; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on cotton (%): 13.54, down 0.62 [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 13.41, down 0.37; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 11.46, down 0.05 [2]. Industry News - According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of February 17, 2026, the non - commercial long positions in U.S. cotton were 99,583 lots, a decrease of 258 from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 155,316 lots, an increase of 4,149 from the previous week; the net short positions were 55,733 lots, an increase of 407 from the previous week [2]. - According to the Brazilian National Supply Company, as of the week ending February 21, the planting rate of Brazilian cotton in the 2025/26 season was 99.9%, compared with 96.5% in the previous week, 99.9% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 99.3%, which is the same as last year and faster than the five - year average [2].