Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-02-24 09:02Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International market: During the Spring Festival holiday, the price of the US ICE raw sugar main May contract rebounded. The decrease in squeezable sugarcane in Brazil boosted the price. Brazil's sugar export volume in the first three weeks of February increased, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. Brazil's sugarcane is in the relative off - season of the harvest period [2]. - Domestic market: As of now, the production and sales progress in China is slow, but there is a strong expectation of increased sugar production in Guangxi in the 2025/2026 sugar season. The industrial inventory is still in the rising cycle, and the supply is at its peak. After the festival, it faces a phased consumption off - season, and sugar prices may remain weak. However, in the short term, driven by the rebound of international raw sugar prices, sugar prices showed relative resilience after the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of sugar is 5229 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 18; the main contract position is 431,165 hands, with a month - on - month increase of 10,907. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 14,461, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 69,236 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,782. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts is 717, with no change [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,866 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 96; that of Thai sugar is 3,805 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 96. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4,891 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 126; that of Thai sugar is 4,811 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 126. The spot price of white sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,165 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5; that in Guangxi Nanning is 5,330 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,350 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60. The sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with an increase of 5.24. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 155.06 million tons, with an increase of 66.58. The cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan is 98.41 million tons, with an increase of 59.18. Brazil's total sugar export volume is 201.75 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 89.55 [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,404 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 121; that of Thai sugar is 1,465 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 121. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 379 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 151; that of Thai sugar is 459 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 151. The monthly import volume of sugar is 58 million tons, with an increase of 14; the cumulative import volume is 492 million tons, with an increase of 58 [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 359.04 million tons, with an increase of 228.74. The monthly output of soft drinks is 1,342.1 million tons, with an increase of 296.4 [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.7%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.71. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.65%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.77. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 9.63%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05. The 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 9.02%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 [2]. Industry News - According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of February 17, 2026, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 253,592 hands, an increase of 18,191 hands from the previous week. The long position was 171,981 hands, an increase of 4,563 hands from the previous week, and the short position was 425,573 hands, an increase of 22,754 hands from the previous week. Brazil exported 1.8006 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of February, with an average daily export volume of 138,500 tons, a 52% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 91,300 tons in February of the previous year. The total export volume in February of the previous year was 1.8251 million tons [2].