瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - For rapeseed meal, international soybean prices are under pressure, which restricts the domestic meal market. Due to the unclear China - Canada trade situation, the pressure on the rapeseed supply side is limited. Currently in the off - season of aquaculture demand, the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. The rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly lower today, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, its supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten slightly. The weak export performance of palm oil pressures the palm market, while the optimistic forecast of soybean oil demand for biofuel production boosts the market. The China - Canada trade situation restricts the commercial purchase of rapeseed, and the pressure on the rapeseed oil supply side is relatively limited. After the holiday, domestic rapeseed oil opened higher and oscillated strongly, showing a catch - up trend [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9200 yuan/ton (up 162 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2290 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 688.4 Canadian dollars/ton (up 1.5 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5520 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 29 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 52 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 250614 lots (up 14141 lots), rapeseed meal was 855671 lots (up 22835 lots) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 18330 lots (up 2781 lots), rapeseed meal was - 180611 lots (down 2822 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 625 sheets (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10020 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2560 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6300 yuan/ton (unchanged), fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8600 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8930 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3080 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 10126.25 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan) [2]. - Import cost price of rapeseed: 8062.81 yuan/ton (up 80.44 yuan) [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 3.9 (up 0.09) [2]. - Basis of main contracts: Rapeseed oil was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 270 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1420 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 1090 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 520 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 95.17 million tons (down 0.1 million tons), annual forecast of rapeseed production in a certain area was 13446 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - Rapeseed import quantity: 5.56 million tons (up 5.36 million tons) [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 144 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan) [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 5 million tons (up 4.9 million tons) [2]. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 0% (down 2.67%) [2]. - Import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 22 million tons (up 5 million tons), rapeseed meal import quantity was 23.82 million tons (up 2.35 million tons) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 0.4 million tons (up 0.2 million tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 0.6 million tons (unchanged) [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 23.6 million tons (down 0.8 million tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 9.35 million tons (down 0.75 million tons) [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 0.4 million tons (up 0.2 million tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory was 27.5 million tons (down 1.7 million tons) [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量: 1.17 million tons (down 1.2 million tons), rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.48 million tons (down 1.38 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 3008.6 million tons (up 30.7 million tons) [2]. - Retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry: 5738 billion yuan (down 319 billion yuan) [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: 525.4 million tons (up 60.6 million tons) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 18.87% (down 1%), rapeseed oil was 15.05% (up 0.87%) [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 18.87% (down 1.01%), rapeseed oil was 15.07% (up 0.89%) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility: Rapeseed meal was 15.96% (down 0.13%), rapeseed oil was 22.33% (down 0.32%) [2]. - 60 - day historical volatility: Rapeseed meal was 14.43% (up 0.07%), rapeseed oil was 17.25% (up 0.08%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On February 23, ICE rapeseed futures rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, supported by the stronger Chicago soybean oil futures. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract rose 2.30 Canadian dollars to 689.00 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture stated at the annual outlook forum that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with analysts' expectations. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [2]. - After the US Supreme Court overturned President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, the possibility of China continuing large - scale soybean purchases from the US has decreased [2]. - As of mid - February, the soybean harvesting progress in Brazil has exceeded 20%, and various institutions said that the country's soybean production will hit a record high. In Argentina, rainfall in the central and northern agricultural regions improved the moisture conditions of soybean crops, and the BAGE maintained the forecast of 48.5 million tons of soybean production in the 2025/26 season [2]. - The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture predicted that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year, and the ending inventory will be 1.65 million tons, lower than 2.75 million tons in the previous year [3]. - From February 1 - 20, 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.9% - 12.6% month - on - month [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture's outlook forum predicted that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in the 2026/27 season [3]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed to March 9 due to the complexity of the case [3].