——可转债周报20260224：历史上春节后权益及转债有哪些季节性？-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the equity market generally performs well, with small - cap and growth stocks having relative advantages. The Wind All - A Index usually has about 15 - 20 trading days of upward movement, with an average increase of about 5%. Small - cap stocks maintain an advantage for about 30 trading days, and growth stocks have an advantage for about 15 trading days. Technology and growth sectors may be the main trading directions, but small - cap stocks may be more suitable for short - term trading due to high valuations [1][10]. - Convertible bonds also perform well after the Spring Festival, but mainly focus on digesting high valuations. After the valuation increase from late December to before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to take profits at the right time [1][20]. - The seasonality of convertible bond terms is not obvious. The frequency of forced redemptions is relatively low in the second quarter, and the probability and frequency of downward revisions are more related to the equity market. Attention should be paid to the possible forced redemption wave in March [1][21]. - The issuance of convertible bonds has obvious seasonality, mainly concentrated around the annual and semi - annual reports. It is expected that there will be a relatively dense listing of convertible bonds around April 2026 [2][27]. - In terms of convertible bond strategies in March, it is recommended to take profits at the right time and maintain a balanced allocation. Be cautious about new and sub - new bonds, and explore near - maturity bonds with strong conversion demands. Pay attention to undervalued individual bonds in the medium - and low - parity range [3] Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Historical Seasonality of Equity and Convertible Bonds after the Spring Festival - Equity Market: After the Spring Festival, the Wind All - A Index generally rises, with an average increase of about 5% in about 15 - 20 trading days. Small - cap stocks have an advantage for about 30 trading days, and growth stocks have an advantage for about 15 trading days. Technology and growth may be the main trading directions, and small - cap stocks are suitable for short - term trading due to high valuations [1][10]. - Convertible Bonds: They perform well after the Spring Festival, benefiting from the strength of the equity market. However, they mainly digest high valuations after the pre - festival increase. It is recommended to take profits at the right time [1][20]. - Terms: The seasonality of forced redemptions and downward revisions is not obvious. The frequency of forced redemptions is low in the second quarter. Pay attention to the forced redemption wave in March [1][21]. - Issuance: The issuance has obvious seasonality, concentrated around the annual and semi - annual reports. It is expected that there will be a large number of convertible bonds listed around April [2][27] II. Convertible Bond Strategy: Take Profits at the Right Time in March and Maintain a Balanced Allocation - Equity Market Outlook: After a brief adjustment, the A - share market rebounded before the Spring Festival. In March, the equity market is expected to perform well. It is recommended to focus on technology and growth sectors, as well as sectors such as non - ferrous metals, cycles, energy, and mid - stream manufacturing [37]. - Convertible Bond Valuation and Strategy: The convertible bond valuation reached a new high. It is recommended to take profits at the right time. Be cautious about new and sub - new bonds, and explore near - maturity bonds with strong conversion demands. Adopt a balanced allocation strategy and pay attention to undervalued individual bonds in the medium - and low - parity range [3][40][41] III. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Weekly, and Valuations Increased (一) Weekly Market Performance: The Convertible Bond Market Rose, and Most Equity Sectors Performed Strongly - Index Performance: Most major stock indexes rose last week. The CSI 300 Index rose 0.36%, the CSI 500 rose 1.88%, the CSI 1000 rose 1.90%, the CSI 2000 rose 1.17%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%. The convertible bond market followed the small - and medium - cap stocks [46]. - Concept Performance: Different concepts had different performances. Glass fiber, contribution to rising points, copper - clad laminates, etc. rose, while space photovoltaics, anti - tariff, etc. fell [49] (二) Valuation Performance: The Premium Rates of Convertible Bonds of All Ratings and Sizes Increased - Convertible Bond Type Performance: The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds increased by 11.64%, that of debt - biased convertible bonds increased by 0.74%, and that of balanced convertible bonds increased by 0.02%. The proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range increased significantly [52]. - Rating, Size, and Parity Interval: The premium rates of convertible bonds of all ratings and sizes increased. The AAA - rated bonds increased by 3.1pct, and the bonds with a size of over 5 billion yuan increased by 3.47pct. The premium rate of the over - 130 - yuan parity interval increased by 5.27pct [52] IV. Terms and Supply: Three Convertible Bonds Announced Forced Redemption, and the Total Newly Promoted Scale was about 2.475 billion yuan (一) Terms: Three Convertible Bonds Announced Forced Redemption, and the Board of Bairun Convertible Bond Proposed a Downward Revision - Forced Redemption: As of February 13, Linuo, Xinfu, and Zhonghe convertible bonds announced early redemption. Shuangliang convertible bond triggered the redemption conditions but did not announce. Many convertible bonds announced non - early redemption or expected to meet the forced redemption conditions [4][71]. - Downward Revision: Bairun convertible bond proposed a downward revision, Longda convertible bond announced the downward revision result. Three convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and ten convertible bonds were expected to trigger the downward revision [4][71] (二) Primary Market: No Convertible Bonds were Issued Last Week, and the Total Newly Promoted Scale was about 2.475 billion yuan - Issuance and Listing: No convertible bonds were issued last week, and Longjian convertible bond was listed with a scale of 100 million yuan. There are 376 issued and non - expired convertible bonds with a balance of 526.565 billion yuan. Aiwei convertible bond will be listed on February 26 [5][74]. - New Progress: Five companies added board proposals, one company passed the general meeting, three companies passed the CSRC review committee, and no company was approved by the CSRC. As of February 13, seven listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuance with a proposed scale of 536.3 million yuan. Four companies newly passed the CSRC review committee with a total scale of 696.6 million yuan, and five companies added board proposals with a total scale of 1.242 billion yuan [5][76][81]