煤焦日报：多空焦灼，煤焦低位运行-20260224

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Coke: On February 24, the main coke contract closed at 1,634.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.30%. The position of the main contract was 39,200 lots, an increase of 3,937 lots from the previous trading day. The coke fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the supply and demand were stable during the Spring Festival. Although the supply of coking coal has shrunk in the short - term, coke enterprises and steel mills have sufficient coal stocks. After the festival, coal mine production has resumed, so the cost support for coke is limited. The coke futures lack unilateral momentum and are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. Uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6][32]. - Coking Coal: On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the main coking coal contract remained weak, with increased positions and falling prices, indicating a bearish short - term market sentiment. The coal mines that stopped production for the Spring Festival will gradually resume production, and the import volume of Mongolian coal remains high. Meanwhile, the terminal demand for real estate and infrastructure is continuously low. The current fundamentals of coking coal are still not optimistic, dragging down the coal price to operate at a low level. The upcoming National Two Sessions may bring certain macro - expectation support. Coking coal futures may maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the context of long - short game. If there is no substantial policy support in the near future, coking coal prices will still face certain pressure [7][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Trump's Global Tariff Disturbance: Trump's 10% global tariff has come into effect, and the White House is trying to raise the tariff rate to 15%, but the schedule is undetermined. The 10% temporary import tariff on goods imported into the US took effect at 00:01 on February 24, Eastern Standard Time [9]. - Stable Coking Coal Price in Linfen Anze Market: On February 24, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,570 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,520 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +3.40% | - 10.06% | - 1.30% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,470 yuan/ton | - 0.68% | 0.00% | - 9.26% | - 2.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,230 yuan/ton | +2.50% | - 0.81% | +4.24% | +6.03% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,620 yuan/ton | - 2.41% | +0.62% | +8.72% | +11.72% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,700 yuan/ton | - 4.49% | - 4.49% | +11.11% | +14.09% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Coke | | 1,634.5 yuan/ton | - 2.30% | 1,682 yuan/ton | 1,607 yuan/ton | 19,187 | +4,906 | 39,187 lots | +3,937 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,101.5 yuan/ton | - 1.65% | 1,135 yuan/ton | 1,081.5 yuan/ton | 592,026 | +130,427 | 468,538 lots | +56,059 lots | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [14][15][16]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [19][20][21]. - Other Charts: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean - coal inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant start - up (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization rate) [27][28][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, with coke expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and coking coal facing pressure without substantial policy support [32][33].