银河期货沥青日报-20260224

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Geopolitical fluctuations intensify, and the asphalt market follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The rigid demand in each region has not yet recovered, but it is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival and with better weather. Under the support of low inventory, low supply, and cost, the spot prices in each region remain basically stable. There are still expectations of a medium - term raw material shortage and cost increase for asphalt [6] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - Futures Prices and Positions: On February 24, 2026, compared with February 13, 2026, BU2603 (the main contract) rose from 3264 to 3334, an increase of 70 or 2.14%; BU2604 rose from 3280 to 3348, an increase of 68 or 2.07%; BU2605 rose from 3284 to 3364, an increase of 80 or 2.44%; SC2603 rose from 460.7 to 493.3, an increase of 32.6 or 7.08%; Brent first - line rose from 67.33 to 71.65, an increase of 4.3 or 6.42%. The main contract position increased from 14.3 to 14.6 (in ten thousand lots), an increase of 0.3 or 1.76%, and the trading volume decreased from 16.9 to 15.4 (in ten thousand lots), a decrease of 1.5 or 8.59%. The warehouse receipt quantity increased from 69070 to 77620 tons, an increase of 8550 or 12.38% [2] - Basis and Spread: BU04 - 05 decreased from - 4.00 to - 16.00, a decrease of 12.00 or - 500.00%; BU04 - 03 increased from - 16.00 to - 14.00, an increase of 2.00 or 12.50%. The Shandong - main contract basis increased from 60.00 to 82.00, an increase of 22.00 or 36.67%; the East China - main contract basis decreased from - 20.00 to - 68.00, a decrease of 48.00 or - 240.00%; the South China - main contract basis decreased from 30.00 to - 38.00, a decrease of 68.00 or - 226.67% [2] - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: The Shandong market price rose from 3210 to 3300, an increase of 90.00 or 2.80%; the East China market price rose from 3260 to 3280, an increase of 20.00 or 0.61%; the South China market price remained unchanged at 3310. Shandong gasoline decreased from 7319 to 7225, a decrease of 94.00 or - 1.28%; Shandong diesel decreased from 5619 to 5561, a decrease of 58.00 or - 1.03%; Shandong petroleum coke increased from 2750 to 2800, an increase of 50.00 or 1.82%. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 13.2, and the exchange - rate middle price increased from 6.9398 to 6.9414, an increase of 0.00 or 0.02% [2] - Spread and Profit: The asphalt refinery profit decreased from - 26.90 to - 199.13, a decrease of 172.23 or - 640.17%; the refined oil comprehensive profit decreased from - 49.69 to - 307.39, a decrease of 257.70 or - 518.63%; the BU - SC cracking decreased from - 460.46 to - 638.26, a decrease of 177.80 or - 38.61%; the gasoline spot - Brent decreased from 861.57 to 552.67, a decrease of 308.90 or - 35.85%; the diesel spot - Brent decreased from 47.14 to - 229.90, a decrease of 277.04 or - 587.68% [2] Part 2: Market Judgment - Market Overview: On February 24, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3365 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton increase or 1.18% compared with the previous day. During the Spring Festival, demand and road transportation were restricted, but crude oil prices rose significantly. Supported by costs, northern traders mainly raised their quotes, driving up the average domestic asphalt market price. In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price rose by 85 to 3250 - 3350 yuan/ton. Although the international situation was volatile and crude oil prices were strong, the overall transaction was average due to insufficient recovery of rigid demand. In addition, some refineries in Shandong resumed production, and there was still a contract to be executed at the end of the month, so the short - term asphalt price was weak. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3280 - 3280 yuan/ton. Although the cost and futures market were strong during the Spring Festival, the demand in the region had not recovered, and the overall market transaction was average. The inventory of the main refineries was controllable, and the shipping price might still rise. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3240 - 3300 yuan/ton. The market demand was gradually weakening, and the inventory level was low, so the price remained stable. The actual market demand may continue to decrease, and the local mainstream price may remain stable in the short term [4][5] - Market Outlook: Geopolitical fluctuations intensify, and the asphalt market follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The rigid demand in each region has not yet recovered, but it is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival and with better weather. Under the support of low inventory, low supply, and cost, the spot prices in each region remain basically stable. There are still expectations of a medium - term raw material shortage and cost increase for asphalt [6] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China, the market price of asphalt in Shandong, the price of gasoline from Shandong local refineries, and the price of diesel from Shandong local refineries [9]