有色震荡运行：铜铝周报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: Market risk appetite is low, and copper prices are under pressure. During the Spring Festival, LME copper oscillated below $13,000. Compared with the strength of precious metals, copper and the non - ferrous sector were relatively calm, showing a clear divergence from the overseas precious metals trend. The rise in macro - sentiment stems from capital's hedging needs rather than global economic growth expectations or inflation. Copper has industrial attributes and is more sensitive to demand uncertainties caused by tariff policies and changes in US dollar liquidity. After the festival, the recovery of domestic liquidity and downstream restocking demand may support copper prices from the industrial side. Continuously monitor domestic inventory and downstream restocking [6][56]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices first declined and then rose during the Spring Festival, and industrial support may increase after the festival. During the Spring Festival, LME aluminum first declined and then rose, ending with a slight increase. On the evening of February 20th, benefiting from the US Supreme Court's ruling that the tariff was illegal, global assets generally rose, and aluminum prices also followed. Before the festival, aluminum prices dropped significantly with the macro - market trend but stabilized above 23,000. After the festival, as liquidity recovers and domestic industrial restocking demand increases, industrial support for aluminum prices is expected to continue to rise. In addition, the low global aluminum inventory in the medium - to - long term will also support aluminum prices. Note that overseas macro - fluctuations and the overall volatility of precious metals and the non - ferrous sector may continue to affect aluminum prices [7][56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - During the Spring Festival, overseas markets were mainly affected by the tense situation between the US and Iran and US tariff policies, which increased market hedging demand and reduced risk appetite. The US dollar oscillated strongly, and copper prices were under pressure [11]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are multiple figures related to copper price trends, such as copper futures price trends, copper Shanghai - London ratio, etc. [14][15] 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On February 13th, the copper ore port inventory was 475,000 tons, a weekly increase of 33,000 tons and a decrease of 156,000 tons compared with the same period last year [27]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On February 12th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 371,600 tons, a weekly increase of 19,300 tons. On February 23rd, the COMEX + LME inventory was 842,300 tons, a weekly increase of 38,900 tons. Domestic inventory is in seasonal accumulation, while overseas inventory continues to rise at a high level [29]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Segment No specific text - based summary content provided, but there is a figure about copper downstream monthly capacity utilization [31][34] 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to aluminum price trends, such as aluminum price trends and aluminum Shanghai - London ratio [32][33] 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On February 13th, the bauxite port inventory was 2,554,260 tons, an increase of 63,260 tons from last week and an increase of 732,260 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [39]. 3.3.3 Low Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - On February 12th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 914,000 tons, a weekly increase of 61,000 tons. On February 23rd, the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 477,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,000 tons [47]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - On February 12th, the aluminum rod inventory was 222,000 tons, a weekly increase of 61,900 tons. The aluminum rod inventory is in seasonal accumulation, but high aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand. Continuously monitor the inventory accumulation speed [53].