Guotou Securities·2026-02-24 09:22Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a clear trend of "East rising, West falling" in the global chemical industry, with Chinese companies leveraging cost advantages to capture market share as European chemical firms face high energy and compliance costs [1] - The "PX-PTA-Polyester filament" industry chain is expected to show resilience due to improved supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2: PX Supply and Demand - PX production growth is limited, with no new capacity added since 2024, leading to a forecasted production increase of only 1% in 2026 [2][3] - The supply of PX is expected to remain tight in 2026, with only one new plant (200,000 tons) coming online in Q4, while demand is projected to grow by 5% due to downstream polyester industry expansions [3][30] Group 3: PTA Market Dynamics - The PTA industry is at a turning point, with a significant slowdown in capacity expansion expected after 2025, leading to a projected production growth of 5% in 2026 [4][42] - The concentration of PTA supply among a few major players (CR6 around 75%) is expected to facilitate better industry coordination and improve profitability [41][43] Group 4: Polyester Filament Outlook - The polyester filament industry is anticipated to benefit from a new round of production cuts, with expectations for a strong seasonal demand in the first half of the year [10][12] - The supply-demand balance for polyester filament is improving, with a projected production growth of 4% in 2026, driven by domestic consumption and favorable external factors [12][30]