国投期货有色金属日报-20260224

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and market analysis for various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, inventory changes, supply and demand situations, and influencing factors [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - After the holiday, the weighted Shanghai copper futures increased positions and closed positive, with prices hovering in the area of short - and medium - term moving averages [2] - The domestic spot copper price was 101,455 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai and an expanding discount in Guangdong [2] - The inventory increased by 154,900 tons, and it is advisable to continue the inter - period reverse arbitrage. The unilateral copper price may adjust to the 60 - day moving average to attract buyers [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum opened higher and fluctuated narrowly. The spot premiums and discounts in different regions varied. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 211,000 tons to 1.125 million tons, and that of aluminum rods increased by 74,000 tons to 383,000 tons [3] - In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will oscillate between 23,000 - 24,000 yuan, waiting for a driving force. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum but is weak in rising [3] - The domestic alumina operating capacity dropped to around 93 million tons. The spot price temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, but the upward driving force for the futures is limited, and it should be treated as range - bound [3] Zinc - After the holiday, the SMM zinc social inventory increased to 209,700 tons, with a smaller increase than in 2025. The long - position in Shanghai zinc entered the market on dips, driving the price to rebound [4] - The cost support is strong, and there is still rebound momentum in the first quarter. However, the expectation of oversupply remains unchanged, so it should be regarded as oscillating to build a top. Short - position is signaled by the rise of TC from a low level, and short - term waiting is recommended [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - On the first trading day after the holiday, Shanghai nickel strengthened. The external market was strong during the holiday. Trump's tariffs were rejected by the Supreme Court, and the weak US economic data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts. The short - term trend is unclear, slightly bullish [7] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated and closed positive, with the spot price at 387,350 yuan. The tin price is expected to oscillate in a wide range. For short - term London tin, pay attention to the resistance above $50,000. Wait and see, focusing on the resumption of supply in the main production areas and post - holiday consumption [8] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, there is still optimistic sentiment, and it should be regarded as strongly oscillating. Market rumors of a mining legal person being investigated have raised supply concerns. The external market is mostly bullish. Technically, it oscillates strongly, and risk management should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher. The large - scale factories in Xinjiang have a phased production cut and are expected to resume production after the holiday. The organic silicon industry's operating rate is about 60%, slightly lower than before the holiday [10] - The industry's emission - reduction policy drags down the demand. The downstream polysilicon demand is still weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate after the holiday, and focus on the resumption and operation rhythm of large factories [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures decreased with increasing positions, closing at 47,000 yuan/ton. Policy support is weakening. Although there is a slight de - stocking expectation, the spot trading is stagnant, and the factory inventory reached a high of 349,000 tons before the holiday [11] - The price is expected to run weakly, with the low point around 45,500 yuan/ton [11]