国投期货农产品日报-20260224

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive Outlook: Soybean, soybean meal, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil [1] - Negative Outlook: Corn, live pigs, eggs [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of domestic agricultural products are affected by multiple factors, including domestic and foreign policies, supply - demand relationships, and market expectations. The market trends of different agricultural products vary, and continuous attention should be paid to policy guidance, supply - demand changes, and market dynamics [2][3][4] Summary by Catalog Soybean - Domestic soybean futures showed a slight decline with reduced positions, while domestic soybean spot prices rose slightly compared to before the Spring Festival. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans started to decline from a high point. The price of US soybeans fell from a recent high. The US tariff policy is unstable, which brings new variables to the export demand of US soybeans [2] Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal - The new 10% global tariff introduced by US President Trump on Tuesday dragged down the price of US soybeans, and the Dalian soybean meal also followed suit. During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure, and the US market shows a situation where oil is stronger than meal [3] Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - The domestic oil futures market opened higher, following the external market. The US biodiesel policy expectation is optimistic, and the supply - demand structure of the new US soybean crop is tightened year - on - year. However, the US tariff policy is unstable, and the export demand of US soybeans has new variables. The basis of domestic soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil in the spot market is basically stable [4] Corn - The corn spot market is generally strong, with some purchase prices in Northeast China rising by 10 yuan/ton and some in Shandong rising by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. US corn continues to be weak and volatile. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress in Northeast China, state reserve auction information, and futures capital trends [6] Live Pigs - After the Spring Festival, the live pig spot price dropped significantly, and the national average slaughter price fell below 11 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume is low, and the supply pressure will continue to be released. The fat - standard price difference is still relatively high, and attention should be paid to the behavior of withholding and secondary fattening. The live pig futures market is still weak [7] Eggs - After the Spring Festival, the egg spot price fell slightly. The egg futures market showed a pattern of strong near - term contracts and weak far - term contracts. Considering the low replenishment base in the second half of 2025, there is still a basis for the egg price to strengthen in 2026 [8]