国投期货黑色金属日报-20260224

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are rated ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silicon manganese is not clearly rated, and silicon iron is marked with unclear symbols [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, and the market sentiment is sluggish, with the disk under short-term pressure. The supply of iron ore is in excess, but there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand. Coke and coking coal are likely to fluctuate widely, and silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are affected by oversupply and the "anti-involution" concept [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The disk continued to decline today. During the Spring Festival, the demand for building materials basically stagnated, the apparent demand for thread steel dropped to zero, and the inventory accumulation was lower than the same period in previous years. The demand for hot-rolled coil also declined, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Due to poor steel mill profits and insufficient downstream acceptance capacity, the molten iron production remained at a relatively low level. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The demand expectation is poor, and the market sentiment is sluggish, with the disk under short-term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The disk fell today. The global shipment increased significantly month-on-month, and the domestic port inventory is at a historical high, with heavy concerns about oversupply. The molten iron production increased slightly at a low level before the festival, and it is expected to continue the resumption trend after the festival, with certain restocking needs. Overall, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in iron ore demand, but the pressure of oversupply is relatively greater, and the disk price is still under pressure [3] Coke - The price continued to decline during the day. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season, the steel profit level is average, and the price pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coke disk has a premium, and the coking coal disk has a premium over Mongolian coal. It is likely to fluctuate widely [4] Coking Coal - The price continued to decline during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,333 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the spot auction transactions are inversely proportional to the disk fluctuations. Affected by the relatively volatile disk price, the transaction price mainly decreased slightly, and the terminal inventory increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production end inventory increased slightly. The winter storage demand is coming to an end. Overall, it is likely to fluctuate widely [6] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of Ghana's ban on the export of unprocessed manganese ore. The spot manganese ore transaction price increased slightly, and the disk entered a non-arbitrage space, with relatively limited downward space. The manganese ore port inventory may start to slowly increase, and the mine shipment increased month-on-month, but the mine cost has increased compared with previous years, and the price concession space may be relatively limited. The demand-side molten iron production remains at a seasonal low level. The weekly silicon manganese production increased slightly, and there is hardly any significant downward driving force. The silicon manganese inventory increased slightly, and the price is affected by oversupply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" concept [7] Silicon Iron - The price fluctuated during the day. The power cost in some production areas has indeed decreased, the semi-coke price remained flat, and the main production areas are still mainly in losses, but the profit in the Inner Mongolia production area has turned positive. The demand-side molten iron production remains at a low level in the off-season. The export demand remains above 30,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The metal magnesium production increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has resilience. The silicon iron supply changed little, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price is affected by oversupply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" concept [8]