银河期货油脂日报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the overall trend of edible oils is oscillating. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices all rose by over 1% today. Palm oil is expected to have limited price fluctuations, soybean oil will follow the palm oil trend, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the long - term [4][7][8] - The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see for single - side trading, consider reverse arbitrage for P59 and Y59, and wait and see for options [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot prices and basis: For soybean oil, the 2605 closing price is 8140, with a rise of 86. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8540, 8620, and 8440 respectively, and the basis in these regions are 480, 400, and 300 respectively. For palm oil, the 2605 closing price is 8824, up 126. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8774, 8764, and 8914 respectively, and the basis are - 50, - 60, and 90 respectively. For rapeseed oil, the 2605 closing price is 9200, up 162. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9820, 9900, and the basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong are 620 and 700 respectively [2] - Monthly spreads: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 70 with no change, that of palm oil is 10 with a rise of 8, and that of rapeseed oil is 29 with a rise of 1 [2] - Cross - variety spreads: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is 684 with a change of - 40, the OI - Y spread is 1060, and the OI - P spread is 376 with a rise of 36. The oil - meal ratio is 2.93 with a rise of 0.05 [2] - Import profits: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a disk profit of - 230, and the CNF price is 1105. The FOB price of Rotterdam rapeseed oil is 1062, and the disk profit is - 1401 [2] - Weekly commercial inventory: In the 6th week of 2026, the soybean oil inventory is 70.1 tons (compared with 96.0 tons last week and 94.7 tons last year), the palm oil inventory is 72.7 tons (compared with 44.3 tons last year), and the rapeseed oil inventory is 23.7 tons (compared with 24.2 tons last week and 64.0 tons last year) [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International market: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicts that the price of crude palm oil in March will fluctuate between 4000 and 4300 ringgit per ton (about 1026 - 1103 US dollars). Supply tightening, increased demand from major buyer India, and the strengthening of US soybean oil prices will support palm oil prices, but the abundant global soybean supply and increased soybean oil exports may limit its increase [4] - Domestic market: - Palm oil: After the festival, palm oil prices rose. As of February 6, 2026, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 72.67 tons, a 3.61% increase from last week. The origin's quotes increased steadily, the import profit was inverted by about 200, the basis was weak, and the spot trading volume increased slightly. In the short - term, palm oil will remain oscillating [4] - Soybean oil: The soybean oil price rose today. Before the festival, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 168.79 tons, and the operating rate was 46.43%, a decrease from the previous week. As of February 6, 2026, the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 115.52 tons, a 0.78% increase from last week. The soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period. The basis is stable, the market trading is dull, and in the short - term, it will follow the palm oil trend [5][7] - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil price rose today. Before the festival, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 1 ton, and the operating rate was 2.67%, an increase from the previous week. As of February 20, 2026, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 9.8 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from last week. As of February 6, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 23.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote was stable at around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion expanded to about - 1300. After the festival, the number of operating oil mills increased, the supply may increase, and the demand is weak. The basis is expected to be weak. Recently, a large amount of Canadian rapeseed has been purchased, which may bring supply pressure in the long - term. In the short - term, the inventory is slightly decreasing, and the actual available inventory is tight, which supports the near - term basis. The high import cost also supports the price. The domestic rapeseed oil is still affected by policy, and attention should be paid to the changes in rapeseed import policies [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Wait and see in the short - term as edible oils are oscillating [10] - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for P59 and Y59 when the price is high [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [13][14][16][20]