玉米淀粉日报-20260224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn is still low, and the spot price has risen, while the price of Northeast corn has remained stable. However, there will still be a slight selling pressure in Northeast China in March, and the price of Northeast corn will fall later, as will the 05 corn contract [8]. - The price of North China wheat is stable, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The 05 corn contract is expected to have limited short - term upward space [6]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2,820 yuan, and that in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The spot price of starch is mainly determined by the price of corn and downstream inventory preparation. The price of by - products has started to weaken but is still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The spot price of North China corn is expected to rise, and the spot price of starch will also rise in the short term, but the 05 starch contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures Market: The closing prices of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 all increased, with price increases of 11, 12, 17, 20, 25, and 37 respectively, and corresponding price increase rates of 0.48%, 0.51%, 0.72%, 0.76%, 0.94%, and 1.38%. The trading volume of C2601, C2509, CS2509 increased by 43.04%, 47.64%, 41.78% respectively, while that of C2605, CS2601, CS2605 decreased by 7.37%, 53.49%, 16.90% respectively. The open interest of all contracts increased, with the increase rates ranging from 3.21% to 19.12% [2]. - Spot and Basis: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, etc. showed different degrees of change, with the price of Zhucheng Xingmao increasing by 10 yuan, Shouguang by 24 yuan, Jinzhou Port by 5 yuan, Nantong Port by 30 yuan, and Guangdong Port by 20 yuan. The spot prices of starch in different regions also changed, with Yufeng increasing by 10 yuan and Jinyu Corn by 40 yuan. The basis of corn and starch in different regions also varied [2]. - Price Spreads: In the corn inter - delivery spread, C01 - C05 was - 32 with a change of - 1, C05 - C09 was - 22 with a change of - 5, and C09 - C01 was 54 with a change of 6. In the starch inter - delivery spread, CS01 - CS05 was - 20 with a change of - 5, CS05 - CS09 was - 24 with a change of - 12, and CS09 - CS01 was 44 with a change of 17. In the cross - variety spread, CS09 - C09 was 333 with a change of 20, CS01 - C01 was 343 with a change of 9, and CS05 - C05 was 331 with a change of 13 [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Corn: The US corn market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened, but it is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2,213 yuan. The closing price of northern ports is strong, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply of corn in North China is low, and the spot price has risen. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat - to - corn price difference has decreased, and the cost - effectiveness of corn has weakened. The domestic aquaculture demand will decline in March, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term spot price of corn is relatively stable, but there will be a slight decline in March, and the short - term upward space of the 05 corn contract on the futures market is limited [4][6]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is still low, and the spot price of Shandong corn is strong. The spot price of starch in Shandong is around 2,820 yuan, and that in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, with the factory inventory reaching 1.118 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons from last week, a monthly increase of 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The price of starch is mainly determined by the price of corn and downstream inventory preparation. The price of by - products has started to weaken but is still higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The spot price of North China corn is expected to rise, and the spot price of starch will also rise in the short term, but the 05 starch contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: The 05 US corn contract has support at 430 cents per bushel. Try to short the 05 corn contract at high prices [9]. - Arbitrage: Go long on the spread between 05 corn and starch contracts at low prices [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - put strategy in the short term and conduct rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments There are six figures in total, including the closing price of northern port corn, the basis of the 05 corn contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn, the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, the basis of the 05 corn starch contract, and the spread of the 05 corn starch contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different indicators [14][15][19].