有色节后偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the copper price showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the main contract price once reaching above the 102,000 mark, and the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased continuously during the day. Overseas, the situation between the US and Iran is tense, and US tariffs are causing disruptions, leading to a low risk appetite in the market. Domestically, liquidity has recovered significantly after the festival, providing support for the copper price. At the industrial level, downstream industries are gradually resuming work after the festival, and industrial support may continue to increase. Continuous attention should be paid to domestic inventories and downstream restocking demand [6]. - On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the aluminum price opened higher and then fluctuated, with the main contract price oscillating above 23,600. The trading volume of Shanghai aluminum continued to increase. Domestically, liquidity has recovered significantly after the festival. At the industrial level, downstream industries are gradually resuming work after the festival, and industrial support may continue to increase. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 24,000 mark [7]. - On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the nickel price opened higher and maintained a volatile trend, with the trading volume continuing to increase. Domestically, liquidity has recovered significantly after the festival. At the industrial level, there is a strong expectation of a decline in nickel ore supply, providing support for the nickel price. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 140,000 mark [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On February 24, the copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 80,409 tons compared to before the festival, reaching 277,089 tons. The matching delivery volume of the SHFE copper 2602 contract was 134,600 tons. The total copper inventory in the mainstream domestic regions was 508,500 tons, an increase of 154,900 tons compared to before the festival. The social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 507,100 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of 135,500 tons compared to before the festival [10]. - Aluminum: On February 24, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum by Mysteel was 1.125 million tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of 211,000 tons compared to before the festival [11]. - Nickel: On February 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 137,300 - 147,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 142,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 2,400 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 8,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 8,900 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -400 - 400 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as copper spot premium and discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE warehouse receipt inventory, global copper exchange inventory, and Shanghai copper monthly spread [13][15][16]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [24][30][26]. - Nickel: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].