铜：高位拉锯，等待节后破局信号

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - During the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic copper market was closed, while the overseas copper market saw slight increases, with LME copper rising 0.33% and COMEX copper rising 1.29% [1]. - Market sentiment is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks from the repeated Iran - US negotiations, the US plan to impose a 15% general tariff on the world after the Supreme Court's ruling, and the uncertainty of the Fed's policy path, which intensify the market's wait - and - see attitude [1]. - On the supply side, the long - term narrative of tight mine supply provides bottom support, and domestic refined copper production in December increased 11.9% year - on - year, with overall stable supply [1]. - On the demand side, post - holiday spot demand is expected to gradually improve as downstream processing enterprises resume work, but the actual demand recovery intensity needs time to be verified [1]. - Domestic social inventories increased significantly before the holiday, and LME copper inventories also rose sharply after the holiday, with continuous accumulation in COMEX copper inventories, increasing the pressure of visible inventories [1]. - In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the substantial recovery of post - holiday peak - season demand will be the key driving variable in the next stage, with attention needed on domestic inventory destocking rhythm and downstream resumption of work [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - During the Spring Festival, domestic copper market was closed, and overseas copper prices rose slightly (LME copper +0.33%, COMEX copper +1.29%). Market sentiment is affected by geopolitical risks, US tariff policy, and Fed policy uncertainty. Supply is stable with long - term mine supply tightness, and December refined copper production increased 11.9% year - on - year. Post - holiday demand is expected to improve, but actual recovery needs verification. Visible inventories have increased, and short - term copper prices are expected to be volatile, with post - holiday demand recovery as a key factor [1]. 3.2 Factors to Watch - US tariff policy changes and post - holiday demand recovery are important factors. Weekly data shows that the price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai increased 0.65% (from 99,625 to 100,275 yuan/ton), the electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai decreased 120% (from 25 to - 5 yuan/ton), the clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) decreased 0.08% (- 0.04 to - 51.17 dollars/dry ton), the oxygen - free copper rod price increased 0.03% (from 101,240 to 101,270 yuan/ton), LME copper inventories increased 31.95% (from 183,275 to 241,825 tons), SHFE copper inventories increased 9.47% (from 248,911 to 272,475 tons), and COMEX copper inventories increased 1.93% (from 589,081 to 600,436 short tons) [1][2]. 3.3 This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - No detailed content provided other than the title [3] 3.4 Futures Market Review - Figures of the Shanghai copper market trend, London copper market trend, and the Shanghai - London ratio (without excluding exchange rate) are provided, but no specific analysis content [4][5][7] 3.5 Supply Situation Analysis - Figures related to copper concentrate forward spot prices, rough copper spot processing average prices, copper concentrate port inventories, domestic electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper and scrap copper price change trends, and main market refined - scrap price differences are presented, but no specific analysis [11][13] 3.6 Demand Situation Analysis - Figures of 1 electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rates, refined copper rod trading volumes, Yangshan copper bonded premiums, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premiums are provided, but no specific analysis [14][15][17] 3.7 Inventory Situation Analysis - Figures of electrolytic copper spot inventories and inventories of three major futures exchanges are presented, but no specific analysis [22][23]