钢材：震荡格局不改，关注宏观扰动

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - During the Spring Festival in 2026, the national construction steel market was generally closed, with the overall price remaining the same as before the festival and regional performance showing differentiation. This year, manufacturers are cautiously optimistic, but there are differences in expectations for the post - holiday market. After the festival, steel prices are expected to have a short "good start" supported by the inertia of steel mills' price increases, low inventory, and cost. However, the recovery rhythm of demand, the resumption progress of steel mills, and inventory digestion will be key variables. Subsequently, the market will likely enter a shock adjustment stage, and the sustainability of the market depends on the actual release intensity of demand, with a short - term shock - upward trend [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - During the 2026 Spring Festival, the national construction steel market was closed, with prices unchanged from pre - holiday levels and regional differences. Manufacturers have a cautious and optimistic attitude, but there are differences in post - holiday market expectations. After the holiday, steel prices may have a short "good start" due to factors such as steel mills' price increases, low inventory, and cost support. Key variables include demand recovery, steel mill resumption, and inventory digestion. The market will likely enter a shock adjustment stage, and its sustainability depends on actual demand release, with a short - term shock - upward trend [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Steel Type | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average hot metal production of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 230.49 | 228.58 | 1.91 | 0.84% | Weekly | | Rebar mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 163.59 | 153.65 | 9.94 | 6.47% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 423.23 | 365.92 | 57.31 | 15.66% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 79.85 | 78.75 | 1.1 | 1.40% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 290.92 | 280.45 | 10.47 | 3.73% | Weekly | [4] Futures Market Review - The report presents figures such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, on - disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [5][6][9]. Spot Market Review - The report shows figures such as the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [14][15]. Fundamental Data - The report includes figures such as the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [17][22][24]