国债期货：短期或偏空，关注股市影响

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures may be bearish, while the medium - term trend may still be bullish. The post - holiday tight money supply may be negative for the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect due to the increased expectation of stock market rise during the Spring Festival may also be negative for the bond market [2] Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - The 4th issue of Qiushi Journal published on February 16 will feature General Secretary Xi Jinping's important article emphasizing key points of economic work in 2026, such as focusing on domestic demand and promoting consumption and investment. Before the Spring Festival, the State Council Executive Meeting studied policies to promote effective investment. After the Spring Festival, a large amount of reverse repurchase, MLF, and treasury cash fixed - term deposits are due, leading to relatively tight post - holiday funds, which may be negative for the bond market [2] 2. Factors to Watch - The main factors to watch include the stock - bond seesaw effect, money - supply disturbances, and economic data [3] 3. Other Sections (Graphs and Data Sources) - There are multiple graphs showing data on the futures market, macro - fundamentals, policy, and money - supply, with data sources from Flush and Ningzheng Futures. These include graphs on long - term and short - term Treasury bond futures prices, trading volume, macro - economic indicators, fiscal and monetary policies, and money - market indicators [4][8][14]