生猪期货：加速向下，弱势难改

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, during the Spring Festival (February 16 - 23), the spot price of live pigs first rose and then fell. The national average price (external ternary) reached 11.59 yuan/kg on February 14, peaked at 12.20 - 12.30 yuan/kg on February 20, and was 12.49 yuan/kg on February 23. From late February to early March, the price will continue to bottom out, with a possible low of 11.0 - 11.2 yuan/kg. From mid - to late March, with a slight recovery in consumption and more pigs being held back, there will be a weak rebound to 11.4 - 11.6 yuan/kg [1]. - The LH05 contract will fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton, currently in an accelerating downward phase with limited downward space [2]. - Factors to be concerned about include changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Spot price: After the Spring Festival, it first rose and then fell. It will continue to bottom out from late February to early March and have a weak rebound from mid - to late March [1]. - Futures: The LH05 contract is in an accelerating downward phase with limited downward space, fluctuating in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton [2]. 2. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Last Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | yuan/head | 357.14 | 357.62 | -0.48 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | kg | 122.9 | 123.26 | -0.36 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | yuan/head | 7.97 | -0.39 | 8.36 | Weekly | | Self - breeding and self - raising profit | yuan/head | -45.69 | 17.88 | -63.57 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 26.22 | 43.84 | -17.62 | Weekly | [4] 3. Other Analyses - Supply situation analysis includes sample enterprise breeding sow inventory monthly trend chart, national sample commercial pig average slaughter weight weekly trend chart, and commercial pig inventory structure by weight [7][9][10]. - Demand situation analysis includes key slaughter enterprise start - up rate and key slaughter enterprise frozen product storage rate [14][17]. - Cost - profit analysis includes profit from purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising profit [19][20].