棉花大涨、生猪大跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival holiday, the cotton futures price soared, the hog price plummeted, the palm oil rebounded at a low level but the rebound space was limited, and the soybean meal adjusted at a high level. The sugar rebounded weakly, and the eggs showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract soared above 15,000, and the market will be strong in the future. The hog price dropped sharply due to strong supply and weak demand, and the market will be weak. The palm oil rebounded at a low level, but the decline has not been reversed, and the market may fluctuate weakly [1] 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton soared after the festival, driven by the rebound of US cotton and the expected growth of domestic demand. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton in 2026 is expected to decline, and the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season is coming. The long positions of the main 2605 contract increased significantly, breaking through 15,000. The strategy is to go long at a low position with a light position, with support at 15,000 - 15,100 [2] 3.2.2 Hog - The main 2605 contract of hog gapped down and fell sharply on the first trading day after the Spring Festival due to strong supply and weak demand. After the festival, the supply increased and the demand entered the off - season. The contract price hit a new low, and the strategy is to short at a high position, with resistance at 11,405 - 11,465 [3] 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal fell from a high level due to profit - taking by long positions and the adjustment of the US soybean in the external market. The supply pressure of soybean meal still exists, and the contract price encountered resistance at the upper edge of the trading range of 2700 - 2800. The strategy is to close long positions and wait for opportunities [5] 3.2.4 Palm Oil - The main 2605 contract of palm oil rebounded at a low level, driven by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil and the strength of US soybean oil during the festival. However, the export data of Malaysian palm oil is weak, and the domestic inventory is high. The contract price is in a rebound within a downward trend, and the strategy is to short at a high position with a light position [8] 3.2.5 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after the festival, driven by the rebound of the international raw sugar price. However, the new sugar listing pressure still exists, and the contract price rebounded weakly. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [11] 3.2.6 Eggs - Each contract of eggs shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The main 2604 contract continued to rise, but the increase was limited due to the decline in post - festival consumption. The strategy is to reduce long positions [12][14]