天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20260224

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to continue its strong trend, while the price of polysilicon futures may continue to be weak, and industrial silicon futures are expected to continue to fluctuate [1][5][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The price of the main 2605 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 7.52% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 164,120 yuan/ton [1]. - Core Logic: After the Spring Festival, lithium carbonate continued its strength. The supply decreased seasonally, with domestic production in February decreasing by 8.2% month-on-month and new capacity release hindered. The demand is expected to be good, with lithium battery production in March expected to increase by 15 - 20% month-on-month and energy storage expected to be at full production. Social inventory is low and continuously decreasing [1]. - Technical Analysis: In the morning, lithium carbonate gapped up and then oscillated. According to the "Three - Line Resonance Method", there was an opportunity to enter the market at 14:05, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is red line, red band, and red ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle overnight is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 137,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Suggestion: Maintain the idea of buying on dips. Use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" for intraday trading, set stop - losses, and refer to the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. - Key Concerns: The acceptance of cell price increases by downstream and energy storage - related policy orientations [3]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The price of the main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures fell 4.67% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 47,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Core Logic: During the Spring Festival, market activity was low, polysilicon manufacturers maintained a low operating rate, but inventory was difficult to reduce. Downstream has excessive inventory in the short term, with low purchasing urgency and low willingness to accept high prices. In the short term, there is a game between upstream and downstream, and the subsequent transaction price is likely to continue to decline [5]. - Technical Analysis: Polysilicon increased positions and declined today, with an afternoon plunge to a new recent closing low. According to the "Three - Line Resonance Method", there was an opportunity to enter the market at 13:45, with a good profit - loss ratio. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is green line, blue band, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle overnight is a weak green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 49,370 yuan/ton [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: It may continue to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to the support level of 45,000 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The price of the 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures oscillated, rising 0.18% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,410 yuan/ton [14]. - Core Logic: In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, due to production cuts by large factories in Xinjiang and marginal production cuts in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan, and fewer production days, the output of industrial silicon in February is expected to decline by more than 27% month - on - month. On the demand side, the demand for downstream silicone, polysilicon, and aluminum - silicon alloy has decreased to varying degrees. In February, supply and demand have contracted simultaneously, and there is no strong driving force without new variables [14]. - Technical Analysis: Industrial silicon increased positions to some extent today. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is red line, blue band, and green ladder, and the 2 - hour cycle overnight is a weak green ladder line, approaching the long - short dividing water level of 8,450 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is expected to continue to oscillate. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in combination with the 8:30 morning live broadcast [14]. - Key Concerns: The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [15].